Quote:
Originally Posted by Tuee
Hitting 8/2* 7/6 is a huge blunder here, but I'm not sure why, especially with the blot in his board. Seems like I've got plenty of ammunition to shoot for a close-out, and having to leave a shot anyway makes it seem even more obvious. Clearly I'm missing something conceptually about this position...
My first reaction is to note that you're giving up an asset to launch your attack. This neither makes the attack right nor wrong, but you're giving up something to play out this blitz. You've got white's blot trapped behind a 4 prime, needing two rolls to escape. By making your play, you're giving up that 4 prime. That is a high price to pay (plus losing a lot in the race if he hits coming off the bar), which means that you had better be getting something just as big in return.
This same idea of considering the cost applies to white as well. If you leave your shot in front of a stripped point, then in order for him to hit he must give up the point. If you attack in the home board, he attacks you at no cost to himself. This is not really the position you want to be in.
As a bonus, white needs a 2 to advance his back checker. By duplicating 2s, you make it harder for white to hit AND advance. Given that white has no spares anywhere, it might be right for him to pass on the hit so that he can advance that rear checker (which means that blot is much safer than it first appears).
Finally, I think you *want* white to move checkers around (which he can't do when he's on the bar). This goes back to the idea that he has no spares. If white doesn't hit, he's almost certainly going to have to break one of those anchors. When he breaks, you're often going to have a shot at sending a SECOND checker back, and this is a huge win for you.