Two Plus Two Forums
Sports and Games
Chess and Other Board Games
Backgammon Forum hosted by Bill Robertie.
When gammon doesn't matter
04-09-2009
, 07:21 AM
Black to play up 4 to 2 in match to 7.
Playing 4/off leaves 20/36 for red to hit.
Playing 3/off, 3/2* leaves 15/36 for red to hit.
Gnubg calculates black is over 4% more likely to win the match by playing to allow the most immediate hits. So I'm thinking there must be something about being stacked on the three point here which significantly reduces the chances of not only leaving a second shot if missed initially, but also a second blot. This would never have occurred to me before seeing just how bad my 3/off, 3/2* move really was. How do you recognize situations in the heat of the battle where you're better off playing against the immediate odds?
05-13-2009
, 12:10 AM
Quote:
Black to play up 4 to 2 in match to 7.
Playing 4/off leaves 20/36 for red to hit.
Playing 3/off, 3/2* leaves 15/36 for red to hit.
Gnubg calculates black is over 4% more likely to win the match by playing to allow the most immediate hits. So I'm thinking there must be something about being stacked on the three point here which significantly reduces the chances of not only leaving a second shot if missed initially, but also a second blot. This would never have occurred to me before seeing just how bad my 3/off, 3/2* move really was. How do you recognize situations in the heat of the battle where you're better off playing against the immediate odds?
Black to play up 4 to 2 in match to 7.
Playing 4/off leaves 20/36 for red to hit.
Playing 3/off, 3/2* leaves 15/36 for red to hit.
Gnubg calculates black is over 4% more likely to win the match by playing to allow the most immediate hits. So I'm thinking there must be something about being stacked on the three point here which significantly reduces the chances of not only leaving a second shot if missed initially, but also a second blot. This would never have occurred to me before seeing just how bad my 3/off, 3/2* move really was. How do you recognize situations in the heat of the battle where you're better off playing against the immediate odds?