Hi Folks
We have a bit of a discussion, IT all startet when I mentioned in the weekly choutte (I beavered) that they have a decision wether or not they will accept my beaver!

Another one argued, that it had obviously been a tremendous blunder of the Initial double if he really thinks about passing the beaver. Fürthermore a beaver is just another 75/25 decision

But i am not ok with this Statement. The 75/25 rule (Said very General) Takes into account you generate euqity by owning the Cube!!

If the opponent gets beavered, he will Not own the Cube.

Any suggestions on calculating the euqity in the described problem?

In the end the Initial doubler is now not playing for the double stake, but for the 2^2 stake. And still Not owning the cube, but losing 2 at once, if he passes the beaver.

At what winning chances for the Initial doubler is it correct to pass the beaver , meaning is there any shift in the 75/25 If playing with beavers in Money Games?

Thanks in advance

You're right that sometimes the initial doubler must pass a beaver with >25% win chances due to the value of the cube to the beaverer.

Here is an example. White wins 36% of games cubeless. However, if White doubles and gets beavered he should pass, because with the cube he doesn't win 36% of the time, he only wins 8/36 (22%) of the time when he bears off both checkers on this shake, because if he doesn't then Orange will immediately redouble and White will have to pass.





I'm not sure what would be the maximum cube leverage the beaverer can achieve, though.

In a long race (no gammons, equity swinging back and forth somewhat slowly), you can often take at 21.5% for money due to the cube leverage. So that's an extra 3.5%. So that's with the taker being around 25%, here we're talking about the beaverer being around 75%, so I'd expect cube leverage to be about triple or around 10.5%. So instead of passing the beaver at 25%, I'd expect it around 36.5%. That's roughly what I'm seeing if I play around, maybe it's a little high. This appears to be a pass of the beaver since the double/beaver equity is exactly -2.0:



This appear to be a close "take" of the beaver:



But of course it depends on how valuable the cube is for the beaverer. And this all ignores gammons.

Only after they give you the right of way, of course.

But in the end that means the Initial doubler has to re-evalluate the position and needs to gain the conclusion, that his initial double was wrong - Most of the people are very confident, that's why I think they often take the beaver as well.

Wo would double on 36%? In the last one to two rolls, you know?

Right — other than some unusual exceptions that are unlikely to happen over the board (“Kauder paradox” positions), double/beaver is unlikely to be optimal for both players (almost always either the initial double or the beaver was a mistake).