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When closing out is a big blunder

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11-13-2023 , 06:03 AM

mso123888

stranger

Join Date: Nov 2023 Posts: 2

Here, making the closeout with 7-1 is a blunder - if I make the prime 17/1 9/7 then my winning increase from 36.5 to 43.6%

I don't understand this difference - in both cases I will safely bear all the checkers in and then start bearing off - where does the extra 7% winning chances come from by making the prime first and then bringing all the checkers home ?

Cheers!

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11-13-2023 , 08:19 AM

bgblitz

enthusiast

Join Date: Mar 2020 Posts: 74

When you close the 1-point you will never ever hit a 2nd checker. If you get hit and Blue rolls another 1 you have a shot, making you the favorite.

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11-13-2023 , 09:02 AM

mso123888

stranger

Join Date: Nov 2023 Posts: 2

Understood, nice one thanks !

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11-13-2023 , 03:40 PM

stremba70

adept

Join Date: Aug 2020 Posts: 1,120

I believe the rule of thumb for white to double in a position like this is that he must close out one checker for every five opponents checkers borne off. If he has more off, you cannot double and you may be an underdog, as is the case here, after closing your board. If blue only had four off, you probably would close out blue’s checker then double him out on a subsequent turn. With five off you would close out, double him (eventually) and he would have a take. With six off it might be close; more off tips it toward trying to hit another checker.

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