Cube is in the centre. Obviously I'm not playing 6/1 3/1, so I have to break one of my points. What's your thought process for deciding which one to break?

I’m not a world class player or even anything close so take this for what it’s worth. You are behind in the race even after this move. When behind in the race you should be trying to maximize contact. That would argue for not breaking the 18 point. That leaves the 13 or the 11 as candidates. Keeping the 13 has the advantage of connectivity; breaking that point completely isolates the checkers on the 18 point. Unless something changes, though, you won’t be looking to break that point in the near future. Keeping the 11 point kills white’s sixes, forcing him to leave a blot on any roll with a 6 (other than 66 which can’t move - also a good result since that costs white 24 pips in the race). For that reason I would lean toward 13/11 13/8, but I could be convinced on 11/6 11/9 as well.

EDIT - a play I didn’t consider originally might be even better. 13/6 breaks the 13 point and leaves the direct shot 1 point away rather than 3 (although it does leave a fly shot as well so it may not be much safer). What it does that 13/11 13/8 does not is leave the blot in a position where it can help with breaking the 18 point if the next sequence goes favorably and you want to do so.

I see only advantages to the move 13/8 13/11 (compared to my other candidate move : 18/13 18/16) :

Less % chances being hit (13/36).

It gives you timing.

If OP hit, it doesnt give OP (opponent) ammunitions directly to point on her five point (for pick and pass or just hit). When i have to let a shot (dilemma : where ?) a criteria i often find in these setup is the question : what move is less freeing and liberating for OP ?

It gives you the most contact which seems good here. If hit, OP would have still lot of contact to face (with our good structure ) and disconnected position.
Compare how 66 65 64 62 61 play with both moves.

Also OP would have to break anchor to hit which maybe increase your gammons compared to 18/13 18/16.



I hope I am right !

Your analysis was pretty much right on, 13/11 13/8 is the best play. I went with the idea of maximizing contact with 11/6 11/9, but this was a pretty big error. I think the key is blocking 6/6 (and also 6/1 which can run to the 13 point. Also it makes my position more flexible for the next roll assuming opponent doesn't hit me.

Dang it, I need to learn to go with my first instinct. Oh well, at least I managed to break the correct point, just with the wrong move. I wonder how much worse 13/6 is than 13/8 13/11. I suppose the fact that white has to break anchor to hit is probably what tips it away from 13/6.

13/6 isn't bad according to XG++, it's only 0.015 behind. I guess the only issue with it compared to 13/8 13/11 is that it's more shots, including more 6s which is White's really bad number.

8s are well diversified with 1s since there are no 8s that contain a 1.

13/6 is the 2nd best play, but still a --0.07 error (whereas my play was a --0.182 blunder). After 13/6, 61 can now be played 12/13*/19 and 62 hits on the 13 point, and you don't gain much in return.

I guess how I should have approached the position was to assume White rolls a 6 next time and try to determine which formation makes his 6s the most awkward.