Quote:
Originally Posted by Pocket Trips
I would also have played 13-9 but my guess is that GNU will not hit coming out if it means leaving 2 blots on his board so it is not concerned with black eaving blots himself as long as red dances.
You're right that Gnubg won't hit until something is done about at least one of the blots in red's inner board. This would justify black leaving the blot on the midpoint, but it doesn't serve any purpose there now.
I think black just has to concentrate on getting home safely, but having spread out the previous roll in an attempt to grab the five point, I'm not entirely convinced that plan should be abandoned. The recommended 10/6 detracts from either objective with fewer ways to fill the gaps, and leaves two blots open which will need immediate attention if red rolls something good like 4-2 next.
I played 13/9 before being prompted to rethink. That's when I started to consider slotting the five point with 13/10, 6/5. My final attempt to appease the tutor was 13/10, 7/6 taking two crossovers. Playing 10/6 was never a serious consideration. If there is hidden value in leaving the black checker on the midpoint (for only a roll or two), doesn't this contradict the overall strategy of getting home safely? I wonder what Snowie plays for black, and think I could give 6:5 it won't be 10/6.
Perhaps in situations where gammon chances fluctuate around 33% in the evaluation, seemingly strange plays can emerge. I don't know if moves like 10/6 can be justified with logic, if this turns out to be true.
Last edited by cashedout; 04-13-2009 at 07:40 PM.
Reason: Missing word