Black to play down 2-0 in match to 7.

Is black far enough ahead by 70 in pips to expect reasonable prospects for gammon if there is no more hitting? Can black afford to slot the five point 13/10, 6/5, and would this help or hurt gammon chances? How much harder will it be to get home safely if red gets a chance to make a board when black plays 13/9 instead? What is there to like about the 3-ply Gnubg recommended 10/6?

It's a little riskier with red holding the cube to be playing all out for gammon, but I think if red re-enters in the next roll or two, that positions can easily develop where black has to avoid getting hit and cubed out. I'm tempted to slot because of all the return shots, and black can afford to go back 25 pips in the race.

Id guess that one thing might be if red reenters in a roll or two, and as you say positions might develop where black has to avoid being hit, black has 6 checkers out of play on the 1, 2 and 3 so landing points will be scarce if he gets hit and has to come back around.

Slotting is way too big and completely unnnecessary. There are lots of hitting numbers that can prove very costly.

I have no idea. I would play 13/9 without much hesitation (my second choice would be 13/10 9/8)

I would also have played 13-9 but my guess is that GNU will not hit coming out if it means leaving 2 blots on his board so it is not concerned with black eaving blots himself as long as red dances.

You're right that Gnubg won't hit until something is done about at least one of the blots in red's inner board. This would justify black leaving the blot on the midpoint, but it doesn't serve any purpose there now.

I think black just has to concentrate on getting home safely, but having spread out the previous roll in an attempt to grab the five point, I'm not entirely convinced that plan should be abandoned. The recommended 10/6 detracts from either objective with fewer ways to fill the gaps, and leaves two blots open which will need immediate attention if red rolls something good like 4-2 next.

I played 13/9 before being prompted to rethink. That's when I started to consider slotting the five point with 13/10, 6/5. My final attempt to appease the tutor was 13/10, 7/6 taking two crossovers. Playing 10/6 was never a serious consideration. If there is hidden value in leaving the black checker on the midpoint (for only a roll or two), doesn't this contradict the overall strategy of getting home safely? I wonder what Snowie plays for black, and think I could give 6:5 it won't be 10/6.

Perhaps in situations where gammon chances fluctuate around 33% in the evaluation, seemingly strange plays can emerge. I don't know if moves like 10/6 can be justified with logic, if this turns out to be true.

Snowie actually favors 10/7 9/8 on 3-ply evaluation with 10/6 in second place and 13/9 in third.

I did a short rollout of the 3 moves and it now favors 13/9 with 10/6 second and 10/7 9/8 third.

It's relatively close though. I guess the reason the blot leaving moves aren't that bad here is the fact that making the 9 point can become a problem to clear later on especially with the open 5 point and as previously mentioned the two blots in reds board make it less dangerous to get hit by a flyshot.

The difficulty clearing the nine point later with potentially two gaps is something I could have underrated. Red would very likely be getting the possible shot before the inner board breaks down.