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Website dice analysis? Website dice analysis?

09-04-2021 , 01:50 PM
Hello,

A genuine post so please don't flame me.

I joined a turn-based website (I won't name them yet) a while back and have played over 9000 games there. These games are almost exclusively single point affairs without a doubling cube.

It was immediately apparent that the dice were hooky. Well, to the human eye at least, (I was losing 7 out of 10 games that I was massively ahead in due to my opponent rolling ridiculous doubles in the end-game).

So I scripted some code to scrape all 9500 games from their website (they don't offer the option to export games).

I intend pushing every single dice roll through a chi-squared test to start with.

What else should I be doing? I don't want to miss anything - is there any mileage in putting each game into a format that XTremeGammon can import so I can see jokers / anti-jokers?

Any thoughts greatly appreciated and thank you for reading.
Website dice analysis? Quote
09-04-2021 , 09:25 PM
Be sure to ignore the first roll of every game, or at least keep track of it separately. As you know, the first roll can never be a double. I recently wrote an Excel program to use a chi-squared test to analyze the dice roll frequency of my matches at Galaxy, and I ignored the initial roll. Later, I checked my results with XG and the results were IDENTICAL, meaning, XG was also ignoring the initial roll of each game.

You have a lot of patience. (You said it was "immediately" apparent the dice were hooky... and yet despite this you played an additional 9,500 games. Not 90 games or 900 games but 9,500!)
Website dice analysis? Quote
09-04-2021 , 09:56 PM
And yet why you didn't show that type of patience over at Galaxy, makes no sense to me.

You made a post here several weeks saying that "if the dice at Galaxy were genuine, you suspected the site was susceptible to script kiddies" because your opponent rolled several doubles in a roll after doubling you.

This comment was made after playing ONE SINGLE MATCH there, and refused to post the match number for verification.
Website dice analysis? Quote
09-04-2021 , 10:08 PM
I wonder why every site is out to get all of the same people. Do you guys think they share a master list or something?
Website dice analysis? Quote
09-05-2021 , 09:11 AM
There's actually a master cabal of evil super-bad guys who meet weekly at their hidden mountain fortress to update the list of folks who will receive the bad dice. All BG sites must obey their edicts or face massive retribution.
Website dice analysis? Quote
09-05-2021 , 11:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robertie
There's actually a master cabal of evil super-bad guys who meet weekly at their hidden mountain fortress to update the list of folks who will receive the bad dice. All BG sites must obey their edicts or face massive retribution.
Yes I do intend ignoring the first dice roll.

The reason for my post was I'm intending publishing the results on a website I'm in the process of creating - just wanted to make sure that I'm doing everything right.
Website dice analysis? Quote
09-07-2021 , 09:24 PM
You're definitely not "doing everything right", starting with the assumption that when you lose 7/10 games when you're ahead you're getting cheated.

Bill, why do we continue to allow such users/threads on here?
Website dice analysis? Quote

      
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