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two good plays, which is better? two good plays, which is better?

03-22-2016 , 08:58 PM
White - Pips 152. Match Score 0/5

Black - Pips 156. Match Score 0/5
Black to Play 4-1
Created with www.BGdiagram.com

A straightforward choice between two alternatives. How do you think about this position? What do you choose and why?
two good plays, which is better? Quote
03-22-2016 , 09:47 PM
I play B/24 13/9*.
Reasons for:
- Increasing lead in the race
- Putting a 3rd checker behind a 4-prime (vs only 2 for us)
- Unstacking the midpoint, additional builder for 9,8,3 points
- Doesn't give the opponent a full roll
- We already outboard our opponent

Reasons against:
- We expose ourself to rolls such as 33,44,55
- Easier for opponent to anchor
- We might have trouble escaping the back checkers
two good plays, which is better? Quote
03-28-2016 , 07:20 PM
I'm not sure what's right. I'll add, though, that owning the cube leads me to want to anchor up more than I would if the cube were centered. The advantage of cube ownership is much less valuable when one side blows the other away.
On the other hand, that stack on the midpoint is absolutely crying out to be developed.
I guess on balance I like the hit with a center cube (or his owning it) and maybe anchor in the current position.
two good plays, which is better? Quote
03-30-2016 , 11:32 AM
OK, a 50-50 split so far, although fewer replies than I hoped.

I posted this problem because I got in wrong in play (by a nontrivial equity difference) and was hoping to learn about the right thought process here.
two good plays, which is better? Quote
03-30-2016 , 12:08 PM
I must admit that I overlooked the cube when analyzing the position, but at 5-away/5-away and gammon possibilities on both sides, I stand with my play.
two good plays, which is better? Quote
03-30-2016 , 12:11 PM
I would hit pretty quickly. The fact that Black has the stronger board strongly argues for the hit, and it just looks like it does more stuff at acceptable risk. Unstacking the mid, sending another checker behind that nice prime, getting a good builder/slot/attacker on the 9... these are pretty great things.

Also I think Black can redouble the dances. If Black anchors with the 4-1, he won't be redoubling for a while.

Last edited by _Z_; 03-30-2016 at 12:16 PM.
two good plays, which is better? Quote
03-30-2016 , 03:34 PM
This has to be a hit, right? On top of everything mentioned, our next roll after anchoring is pretty likely to be lame as **** because all 3 spares are in the same place aimed at almost nothing.
two good plays, which is better? Quote
03-31-2016 , 08:08 AM
Indeed, the hit was better, by about 0.120. The equities were roughly +0.560 for hitting and +0.440 for anchoring (I am posting from memory).

I anchored during the match. I decided to think of it as a prime vs. prime position, which is perhaps premature since these are only 4-primes. This caused me to overvalue anchoring at the front. Another small consideration, I did not want white to anchor, and he actually has more rolls to anchor after I hit him that if I do not.

I guess I also undervalued unstacking the midpoint, figuring that once I anchor up, I can unstack at my leisure, not worrying too much where they go or even if they get hit. Evidently this attitude was too relaxed.

I failed entirely to consider this:
Quote:
Also I think Black can redouble the dances.
A good point! Redoubling an even race with both sides holding 4-primes was not on my radar at all. But things can change fast.
two good plays, which is better? Quote

      
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