So i came across this in xg today:



I made the play i thought would be obvious 9/2, but but apparently that's a blunder (-0.140) with the correct play being 9/6 9/5, which seems silly to me as it's leaves a hit.

The only reason i can think of is that i need to get the three checkers across asap before the opponent fills out his home board, and of course leaving a hit while the opponent has two blots in his is better than leaving a hit after he's filled it out, but this still seems like an absurd play to me because there's a decent chance i might not even need to leave a hit.

Can anyone else give some insight?

The fact that you have a decent chance to never leave a shot is a pretty strong argument for 9/2, it's just not strong enough to counteract the impetus for leaving the shot now.

This is known as a pay now or pay later problem. Aside from the chance you'll never have to leave a shot, the answer to the following three questions are typically key in deciding whether to cough up the shot right away:

1. Is your position getting worse?
2. Is your opponent's position getting better?
3. Are you home free when missed?

All three point to paying now in your position, especially 2 and 3. Also note you will win more gammons with the pay now play. Both because of an exchange of hits and because when missed you can sometimes just power through to a gammon.

Another way to look at this same issue is that, after paying now, Black is supposed to hit with all 15 numbers, but most of them aren't super costly for you, as you almost always get a double or single shot back at him. So in that sense, the immediate shots are heavily discounted. The shots you leave a turn or two later are going to be deadly.

The rationale maybe is that After a dump move you have any 5 that play bad and 6-1 and 6-2 and stuff like that along with the fact that oppo has two blots in hb. But i would have played 9/5 and 6/1 trying to stay even in the back but i would never Leave a shot

You meant 9/5 6/3?

that seems right. if you throw 66 next shake your good. and there is no shot playing 9/5 6/3.