Quote:
Originally Posted by Ikipiros
If I understand correctly the reason of this strange result in this example is because the game can end immediately (if I get 6,5 6,6 etc) with a prob 16.67% and if I do not double now I only win 1.
Right..the point is by doubling you
kill your opponent's cube, which you don't by not doubling. So ND gives your opponent full benefit of the cube on his shake but you don't get the added benefit on your (prior) shake.
This often comes up at certain match scores when you are trailing. E.g. let's say you are -5 -3 (5-away 3-away) and holding a 2-cube, playing a back game and you get a late shot with a strong board. You may be only 30% or something to hit. But hitting will lose your market. If your opponent wins he usually gammons you for the match anyway. Therefore it is often right to redouble at such a score, because you kill your opponent's gammons when you lose (he would have won 4 points anyway), but you ensure your wins when you hit are 4 points instead of 2 points.
EDIT: I should also point out that it is
never an error to not double if you don't have a market loss.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ikipiros
For practical purposes (ignoring end positions like this where the game can finish on this roll), especially in the beginning of a game, Would it always (or almost always) to have the Double Point at 50%?
Yes, generally speaking. I would usually wait until I have an advantage to double, sometimes a bit longer if I don't think there are any market losses.
However if you are playing a 2-point match or a $1-2 game rather than a money game I believe most games should be cubed by the favorite very early on, probably within the first two or three rolls.
Last edited by atrifix; 08-19-2009 at 04:53 AM.