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Split or Down? Split or Down?

05-10-2018 , 06:47 AM
White - Pips 148 (-13)

Black - Pips 161 (+13)
Black to Play 3-2
Created with Diagram Builder

Money Game
What is your play and why?

Last edited by BlueDice; 05-10-2018 at 06:55 AM. Reason: wrong position posted
Split or Down? Quote
05-10-2018 , 11:32 AM
Trailing in the race, I want to focus on attacking/priming, so 2 down for me, especially since it unstack a heavy point. If I led the race or it would be about even, I'd split.
Split or Down? Quote
05-11-2018 , 10:19 AM
White - Pips 148 (+0)

Black - Pips 148 (+0)
Black to Play 3-2
Created with Diagram Builder

Money Game
I've evened up the race and changed the position 'slightly'
Now what do we play?
Split or Down? Quote
05-14-2018 , 11:06 AM
Solution

1. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/10 eq:-0.428
Player: 40.61% (G:11.90% B:0.61%)
Opponent: 59.39% (G:21.73% B:1.93%)
Confidence: ±0.019 (-0.447..-0.408) - [91.8%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/8 eq:-0.447 (-0.020)
Player: 39.86% (G:11.50% B:0.49%)
Opponent: 60.14% (G:21.02% B:1.52%)
Confidence: ±0.020 (-0.467..-0.428) - [8.1%]

3. Rollout¹ 24/21 13/11 eq:-0.467 (-0.039)
Player: 40.54% (G:11.32% B:0.70%)
Opponent: 59.46% (G:26.34% B:1.45%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.484..-0.449) - [0.1%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Split or Down? Quote

      
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