match to 1



do you break contact? And what is your thought process in deciding? how do you calculate the relative likelihoods of winning in each scenario?

remember it is a match to 1, so gammons are not significant.

cheers

It is a close call but I would break contact here. After doing so you will have 2 more cross-overs than red but a better board structure for bearing off. I would break contact and hope to catch up during the bear off phase. If you don'tbreak contact, here your board will crash in 1 or 2 rolls anyway.

Assuming breaking contact is the correct play, with board structure in mind, I am not sure if it would be better to play 22-10 (2) or 22-16(2) 13-7(2).

My guess would be 22-10 but 13-7 might be better to try to fill the one point before bearing off.

If you break contact, it's a race, and the pip count is the overwhelmingly important factor. The existing minor board structure issues will hardly ever matter when there is this far to go.

If I counted correctly, you will have 95 pips left after you move, and Villain will have 84 and be on roll. Villain will have a 13% lead which will translate into winning chances in the range of 78%-80%, leaving you with just over 20% winning chances, based on racing.

If you stay back, you still have the exact same winning chances based on the race, at least for now, plus you have the additional chance of hitting. But there is also the chance that you will start wasting pips by having to move within your home board, or that you will be forced off your anchor and get attacked yourself. The subtle upside of staying is that Villain will often be forced to waste pips as well to play safe.

So, who knows. But I would break contact now. Villain's current structure is just too nice. You won't get a shot all that often, and you will have too many scenarios where you start wasting pips and he doesn't have to.