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Seidel v Ballard 1981 match file please?? Seidel v Ballard 1981 match file please??

02-17-2021 , 10:11 AM
1981 Chicago Cup, consolation, 9 point match.
If anybody has the match file I would be very grateful.
Seidel v Ballard 1981 match file please?? Quote
02-17-2021 , 03:08 PM
This match (and many others) is available there. Search for "Seidel" for instance.
Seidel v Ballard 1981 match file please?? Quote
02-17-2021 , 03:56 PM
Thanks plm, much appreciated.
I have the match in print form in an edition of "Backgammon Scholar". Would have taken me an age to type it in. It's a very instructive match, played at a high level even by today's standards although a few of the plays and even Jake Jacobs' comments are off the mark.
Seidel v Ballard 1981 match file please?? Quote
02-18-2021 , 05:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by plm
This match (and many others) is available there. Search for "Seidel" for instance.
Thank you for this nice database.
I analyzed the Ballard Seidel match and one position I want to post here. Special score 4a2a...
You know that it's gammon go for the throat at 4a...

Even though I wouldn't have doubled to avoid giving an easy take for the 2a.
4a doesn't have any new homeboard points.
It's just that 2a has 4 blots lying around... no double costs already 0.050...
XG++ says 20% gammons are lying around, I guess because of crucial jokers like f.e. 33 44 55 and the intention of 4a to gammongo everything.
So for calculation you can ignore the 2a gammons and add the 20% to the 56% winning chances of 4a which sums to 76%. 2a has a TP of 20%, having therefore 24% for a comfortable take.
So a joker by 4a will push 2a into pass territory what we don't want to see without doubling at that score.
My problem is, even though I see the position and can analyze it adequat, I would never ever double this, no matter if my opponent is weak or strong as hell.
Would you double here? Any thoughts?

Seidel v Ballard 1981 match file please?? Quote
02-18-2021 , 05:54 AM
I would have cubed this if not on the bar, in this position would have (wrongly) waited a roll and probably lost my market.

In favour of cubing is the fact that (even after some of the jokers you mentioned) after the inevitable blot hitting contest that's about to ensue, things will probably settle into a mutual holding game with Ballard (4a) having a solid racing lead (this because most of Seidel's blots are (and will be) on his own side of the board).

Also, if you lose a single point and we get to 1a 4a Crawford, your winning chances in the match are now slim (somebody please correct me but is it around 11%) so going for 4 points, and the match now seems the logical option.
All very easy to say when not facing the position over the board :-)

Last edited by Dr-Dark; 02-18-2021 at 06:12 AM. Reason: typo, grammar
Seidel v Ballard 1981 match file please?? Quote
02-18-2021 , 09:44 AM
Winning chances at 4a 1a Crawford are around 17%+.
Seidel v Ballard 1981 match file please?? Quote
02-18-2021 , 10:39 AM
Thanks Bill
Seidel v Ballard 1981 match file please?? Quote

      
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