I moved 8/5 6/4 because i thought that there´s a good chance of hitting and making the point next turn. And i thought that hitting was too risky, because my opponent has tons of builders when he/she hits back ... I was really surprised by the analysis of XG. Hitting wins just 0,23% less games than playing safe, but wins 11,48% more gammons - that´s a lot isn´t it? Even if my opponents rolls 11 i´m still a slight favorite to win the game:
Opponents rolls 11:
1. XG Roller++ Bar/24*(2) 6/5(2) eq:-0,167
Opponent: 45,27% (G:5,42% B:0,13%)
Hero: 54,73% (G:20,54% B:1,84%)
After my opponent rolls 21 i´m still a huge favorite to win the game with ~40% gammons:
1. XG Roller++ Bar/23 Bar/24* eq:-0,873
Opponent: 25,93% (G:3,84% B:0,13%)
Hero: 74,07% (G:41,77% B:2,33%)
And last but not least 31:
1. XG Roller++ Bar/24* eq:-1,176
Opponent: 19,74% (G:2,66% B:0,09%)
Hero: 80,26% (G:54,49% B:2,96%)
Pretty surprising to me!
What makes not hitting really bad is if my opponent anchors. I still win ~80% of the games but the gammon rate drops down to 25% !!!
After 8/5 6/4 and my opponent anchors:
1. XG Roller++ Bar/24 7/5 eq:-0,927
Opponent: 16,65% (G:0,32% B:0,01%)
Hero: 83,35% (G:26,15% B:1,72%)
What do i have to change at the postion to make 8/5 6/4 the best move?
Changing the match score to Hero 5 : XG 2:
1. Rollout¹ 8/5 6/4 eq:+0,547
Hero: 86,86% (G:58,18% B:5,60%)
Opponent: 13,14% (G:0,54% B:0,06%)
Confidence: ±0,008 (+0,539..+0,555) - [93,0%]
Duration: 18,0 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 6/1* eq:+0,538 (-0,009)
Hero: 86,95% (G:67,97% B:3,97%)
Opponent: 13,05% (G:1,26% B:0,19%)
Confidence: ±0,009 (+0,529..+0,547) - [7,0%]
Duration: 19,2 seconds
Nope... Ok, now it is the best move, but the difference is way too small....
Adding an inner board point (5pt):
White - Pips 138. Match Score 2/7
Black - Pips 85. Match Score 0/7
Black to Play 2-3
Created with
www.BGdiagram.com
Nope:
1. Rollout¹ 6/1* eq:+1,233
Player: 81,76% (G:58,28% B:1,32%)
Opponent: 18,24% (G:2,29% B:0,10%)
Confidence: ±0,008 (+1,225..+1,241) - [100,0%]
Duration: 17,6 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 8/5 6/4 eq:+1,183 (-0,050)
Player: 85,10% (G:46,31% B:1,25%)
Opponent: 14,90% (G:1,09% B:0,06%)
Confidence: ±0,007 (+1,176..+1,190) - [0,0%]
Duration: 17,8 seconds
4 prime:
White - Pips 140. Match Score 2/7
Black - Pips 85. Match Score 0/7
Black to Play 2-3
Created with
www.BGdiagram.com
Not enough:
1. Rollout¹ 6/1* eq:+1,233
Player: 81,66% (G:58,68% B:1,30%)
Opponent: 18,34% (G:2,28% B:0,29%)
Confidence: ±0,008 (+1,225..+1,241) - [100,0%]
Duration: 19,6 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 8/5 6/4 eq:+1,187 (-0,045)
Player: 85,39% (G:46,51% B:1,00%)
Opponent: 14,61% (G:0,99% B:0,04%)
Confidence: ±0,007 (+1,180..+1,195) - [0,0%]
Duration: 17,7 seconds
5 prime:
White - Pips 134. Match Score 2/7
Black - Pips 85. Match Score 0/7
Black to Play 2-3
Created with
www.BGdiagram.com
Yes, there it is - finally you have to play safe...
1. Rollout¹ 8/5 6/4 eq:+1,066
Player: 84,93% (G:36,79% B:0,77%)
Opponent: 15,07% (G:0,82% B:0,08%)
Confidence: ±0,007 (+1,060..+1,073) - [100,0%]
Duration: 16,5 seconds
...
5. Rollout¹ 6/1* eq:+0,950 (-0,116)
Player: 75,48% (G:47,47% B:0,70%)
Opponent: 24,52% (G:3,48% B:0,16%)
Confidence: ±0,009 (+0,941..+0,959) - [0,0%]
Duration: 16,1 seconds
What really surprised me was, that even when i get hit with 21, i´m still a 75% favorite to win the game. I did not expect that. Fascinating, complex game...