15pt match tied 8-8. Black to play 5-4. What and why and what's my general plan of action?

20-15*, 15-11

hit and bring the checker down hoping to make the 5 point ( or another) next turn

Much like this weeks problem of the week we are in trouble here and want to try to hit while bringing builders down following the basic rule of backgammon, which is when behind hit and when ahead race.

Hitting here cant be correct.You have no hope of hitting, containing his checker,running your back checkers, without leaving multiple shots against a scary board. I am not moving from my anchor on his 5 point. I like 13/4 or 13/8 13/9. Prepare your home board for a future shot.

At first glance I liked 24/15*. We have an advanced anchor and cube ownership. I don't have any plans trying to win from with an acepoint game. By hitting we'll open ourselves for 3s, 5s and 6es. We will get some return shots but even if we hit again theres a lot to do to win.

If we don't hit we have limited options.
* Making the acepoins is not at play I can make here, wether it's right or wrong. It's putting two checkers we need for a prime/highpoint board out of play.
* I can' leave the midpoint because much of the equity in this holding game comes from the extra pressure our midpoint is providing.
* By slotting our 4-point and movin the last checker to 1 we are trying to build our board fast and get ready for the next time we get at chance to hit. The downside of this play is that we might be forced to leave the mid point in the near future anyway. Often it's better to leave it sooner not to damage our position.

Well, I can't get myself to make a non hitting play. Leaving the 20-point anchor is not an option for me which leaves me with 24/15* as the only candidate.

I'm looking forward to see the right answer and learn the reasoning.

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I don't think we have any other choice. Our chances are not good in this game but we MUST hit to keep him from just walking into his board. Even if we get hit on our 5 point we are still better off than we were b/c white has to bring that checker around again and we still have an anchor on the 1 point and the 5 point slotted to come out to.

Abandoning the midpoint now is not good because it removes the one asset we have right now, which is the pressure we are putting on white's own midpoint. As long as we keep our midpoint intact, any roll less than 7 will be difficult for white to move without either weakening his board or leaving a blot

Hitting could be right here, but abandoning the golden point anchor with whites strong position here is suicide. So if you hit then 24/15* is the way to go. Even with the 20-point anchor we could still lose a lot of gammons after getting hit back, though. White will happily hit loose on the acepoint and we end up with 3 checkers on the bar against a five point board.

Not sure about anything, but it feels like 24/15* leaves us too exposed for not enough gain. I'm gonna sit tight and clear the midpoint, which I don't think is too bad.

Well, PocketTrips has a point because we have serious timing problems in our backgame.

But hitting by giving up our 5-point anchor is hopeless. We could easily find ourselves with 5 checkers on our 1-point within three moves...

If we hit, I would hit 24/15* like mute said. But still I feel that this could turn out really bad if we are hit and dance.

I think I would gamble it on a timing turnaround and just play 13/8 13/9. Then we hope that we don't roll large rolls for one or two moves and that we can build a board.

Once the opponent has piled everything up in front of our 5-point anchor, we can still leave if we otherwise would have to distroy our board. This gives us still some hope, because the hole on the 5-point might be impeding our opponent a litte bit...

We want him to "just walk into his home board". The only real "asset" you have is owning whites 20 point..followed by the 24 point. I could find 24/15* as the right play if my 5 point was made, but it's not.The midpoint isnt putting any pressure on anything untill we have a better board, if you want to maintain your midpoint pressure move 13/4. Your home should be in great shape next roll, if you get hit your still a favorite to come out first roll. You need to prepare for a future shot...this isnt the shot to take.

I would pick 13/4 here too. While our timing is awful for the backgame, and the 1-5 isn't too great, hitting with 24/15* looks dangerous. We can't contain the checker, opponent has 15 return shots on the 5 point, and we're so weak that it may be right for white to attack on the ace point with 16, 26, or 46. So I just put a checker where I want it, and if we get hit on the midpoint I'm really not too sad.

Yo, 13/4 is a serious alternative. I pleaded for 13/8 13/9 but keeping a little bit of pressure on White's midpoint seems better.

If White hits this blot, we couldn't care less because our timing improves.

20/15*/11

Our position sucks, and in this position, with this timing, holding the 24 pt is more important than holding the 20 pt. A 1-5 back game is not a back game. Sorry. With this move we might be hit on our 5, yes, but if not we have a number of builders on our inner board and cover our outer board well. He's going to have problems coming around if he doesn't hit.

We leave a blot on the 24 pt but the only good hit (without giving up his bar, which is a bad play) is a 1 and he might need that to come in.

In this position, our biggest assets are the combination of the midpoint and the 24 pt. We don't want to give that up by breaking our midpoint.

If he flails, and it's likely he will, we're in a good position to start pointing, and in a lot of cases he'll soon need to break his midpoint, in which case we own the whole outer half of the table, or his bar, in which case our 24 pt checkers become more valuable..

Pressure. Hit.

With all due respect i am not sure i understand any of your logic. One thing i did understand was..."he's going to have problems coming around if he doesn't hit". Let us count the ways: After 20/15*/11

Disaster shots-55, 22, 11, 56, 52, 51...9 disaster shots

Plain old hits-12, 13, 23, 35, 41, 42, 44, 45.....15 other hits = 24 shots

Did i miss any hits? If not he is a big favorite to not only hit...but if any of those 9 disaster shots come we get gammoned. 20/15*/11 is a suicide play.

You need to read it like I wrote it, after a couple of shots of Jameson's.

What I was trying to say is that you're going to have to break a point. Breaking the midpoint is terrible, so you're going to have to break the 20 or the 24. I prefer to keep the 24, so I'm breaking the 20.

With all due respect, but I believe that your suggestion is exactly the opposite of what is called for in this position. Black's one and only asset in this position is not his midpoint but his backgame. The midpoint does have very little value for Black right now. White will soon hop it and then it's all to the backgame anchors to deal with White's race lead.

You have to play for hitting a shot later, when your board is stronger. Breaking an anchor now and getting hit is doom.

White is leading the pipcount 99 to 165. This is not a good backgame timing for Black, but it can't be helped. Just play 13/4 and try to build a board. If White hits the blot on the midpoint, we are a favourite to re-enter and our timing will improve significantly.

I'm with the conservative players on this one. I just play 13/8 13/9 and wait.

You haved two goals in this position: first goal is to win, second goal is not to get gammoned. Hitting with 24/15* helps your winning chances a little bit, but the three blots plus the loss of one of your anchors raises your chances of being gammoned a lot. I count 4 dancing numbers for White (6-3, 6-6, 3-3), plus 5 other shots that enter without hitting (2-1, 4-4, and 4-2). The other 27 numbers all hit somewhere, leaving you in big trouble. (Weak board, lots of blots, only one anchor ... ugh.)

Even worse is 20/15*/11.

OK is 13/4, but I don't want to be on the bar right now, so I'm reluctant to leave even the single blot on the midpoint. I want some indirect shots as he tries to clear the midpoint, and if I stay on the bar, I may not get them.

But the main idea is that I'm really putting a lot of effort into saving the gammon here. That's a realistic goal. A lot has to go right before I start worrying about winning the game.

Note that if my 5-point was made, I would play 24/15* in a shot, as someone else suggested earlier.

Maybe that's my problem. I was looking to win the game.

After 13/9 13/8 you'll have to hope to roll small numbers a couple of times or your board will collapse. Then you'll have to run from the 20 pt anyway. I hate games where all my checkers are on the 1 pts.