Online at backgammongalaxy.com. Five point match current score 0-2 and this position came up:



I'm just going to post it without any commentary as I am super curious how people think through this position.

I'm surely missing something, but I would play the plain looking B/20.

Hitting with B/24 20/16* is tempting, but seems a bit risky while he has the stronger board.

I think hitting has enough going for it despite the risk, mainly because of White's other exposed blots. Not sure if you're a favorite if you play B/20, but I'm pretty sure you are if you hit. 25% of the time White dances, and down 0-2, maybe it should go double/pass. So you win those, and then you only need to win a third of the 75% entries to be a favorite. You're an underdog on those because you get hit back a lot, but I don't think you're a big underdog, as you're only getting crushed when you get hit and then dance right away.

I can't resist the hit here. White has 3 blots. We will have a decent chance to reanchor somewhere if we get hit back, and also the match score makes it hard for white to redouble us out so we get to realize a lot of the equity.

Well, you guys have definitely hit on the main two moves. One of them is a blunder - it is not close between the two plays according to XG (0.29 difference).

Is gammon price possibly the determining factor here? Trailing 3-away, 5-away is probably a gammon save situation (I haven’t actually calculated the equities but getting to Crawford is usually pretty valuable). With that in mind, if it’s close for money, which it may be, it would be pretty clear b/20 at this match score.

I have a pretty good rule of thumb for situations like this. Suppose you're considering two plays which lead to very different kinds of positions (like Bar/24/20 versus Bar/24 20/16*), and you can't decide between them. If one play is a hit and the other isn't, then hit.

The reason this is a good rule is that it's easy to overestimate your danger after the hitting play. In this position a lot of players would think something like "If I hit then I'm leaving a couple of blots and he'll probably hit me back and then I'm dead. So I'll button up and then I'm still in the game no matter what."

But if we actually look at how the rolls play after a hit, the upcoming sequences look like this:

> 1/4 of the time he dances, and you mostly win, with a lot of gammons.

> 1/4 of the time he enters but doesn't hit you. You're OK.

> 1/4 of the time he enters and hits and you reenter. You're OK.

> 1/4 of the time he enters and hits and you dance. You're dead.

So the sequence you're actually worried about only happens about 25% of the time. The rest of the time you're either winning or doing fine.

Also, take a look at the score. You're trailing 0-2, so aggression is called for, also supporting the hit.

And lastly -- look at the position through your opponent's eyes. When he sees your 1-4, is he thinking "Oh boy, I hope he hits me" or "I don't want to be on the bar -- I hope he plays Bar/20." Probably the latter.

I really appreciate the discussion.

I obviously played Bar/20 and it seemed clear to me as I didn't want to leave 3 blots. I didn't spend as much time on the play as I should have, but even if I had I doubt I find the right play here.

Turns out, it's such a large error match score is almost irrelevant.

1. Match Score 0-2
   • B/24 20/16* (50.6 15.7) opponent (49.4 17.5)
   • B/20 - -0.293!!! (43.77 5.47) opponent (56.2 5.7)
2. Unlimited game
   • B/20 - -0.221!!!

The equities do change based on match score, but after looking at a number of different scores the only time the play switches is if we are winning the match 4-0 and then XG prefers the "safe" play B/20.

I am not sure how I can assimilate this into my game as it seems so complex, but I guess the main thing is to slow down and count shots and break it down like Robertie did. But over the board that could take me way too long.

Thanks again everyone!

Hitting is correct at 4-0 (you need to click the Crawford checkbox.)