Problem of the Week #97: February 20


Cash game, center cube. Black on roll.





Black to play 3-2.


Note: All ‘cash game’ problems assume the Jacoby Rule is in effect. That is, you can’t win a gammon unless the cube has been turned.

I make the 22 for a long-term asset. Then I can try to make progress up front and not really care if I get boinked a few times in the process. I just don't see the upside of hitting the 5 that gets rehit a huge amount or dumping a builder into the outfield. It seems way too obvious, so maybe I'm missing something here.

It is early in the game. But White isn't only threading to threat. White is aiming on both five points, and if he can make one of them, he is sitting for a long time in the driver's seat. Black has to fight now not to be fixed into an inferior position.

A two-time World Champion once wrote: "Make no mistake about it. The 5-point is crucial, essential, vital, the very bedrock of opening and middle game strategy. Mortgage your house, barter your soul, offer up your first-born, but make the 5-point!"

This is in my amygdala thince i read this. Despite Stick wrote at Gammon Village for myth busting about the 5, i would hit here in a shot and fight for one of the five points. Settling for the 3 point is a slippery slope play for wimps.

I'll grab the anchor.

At the risk of regressing back to my 1980s roots, let me recommend the hit: bar/23, 8/5*. Black expects to be hit back, and thereafter to be involved in a blot hitting contest. Sitting back is way to passive here. Black cannot afford to give White a free hand to make one or more of the five points without a challenge.

This problem is interesting to contrast with Problem 90, where the best solution is play passively, avoiding the blot hitting contest.

My solution: bar/23, 8/5*.

[Edit: One thing I failed to consider is the race. Black is way ahead. Perhaps this fact tilts the decision in favor of the anchor making play. Nevertheless, I'll stick with my first choice.]

For the Record
I am so often wrong that I like to post my record in these messages. It's kind of a truth-in-advertising thing. Grunch: I have been answering these problems without the use of a bot, and before checking the excellent solutions of others, since Problem 28. My record at this writing is 53%.

White has a lot of good things they can do on the next roll if you leave them alone, 14 rolls make the 5 point, another 6 make their bar, and failing those there are several numbers that make black's 5. Hitting on the 5 takes away many of those opportunities, as well as starting black's 5. If black gets hit there will be a good shot at grabbing an anchor, and maybe a better anchor than the 3.

bar/23 8/5* for me.

OTB I make the anchor without hesitation.

And since that seems so obvious, the right answer must be to hit on the 5 point. You're not really in a hurry to make an anchor, so there's a cost to waiting until a later roll to do that. Losing the spare on the 8 seems to be a high cost when you're almost certainly going to be hit back... If I am going to argue that hitting loose is right, it's because of two reasons:

1) Tempo. In this spot, with white having all sorts of builders all over the place, I don't want what to have both dice to move.

2) Good upside and no downside. If I'm lucky enough to dodge the large number rolls that hit me back, I've got a shot at making the 5 point. If I get hit, I just shrug a little because I'm not really worried about being sent back.

But in reality, I'm only thinking about this because of the quiz factor.

The difference count:

0 vs. 2 -2
20 vs. 13 +5
11 vs. 13 +3
10 vs. 13 +-0

Plus the roll of 32. I remember, that Danny said, to be on roll counts 4 pips. So settling for the three point grabs a race 1 pip leading.
Way ahead??

And in #90, there is a split to the barpoint. Generally, we are underestimate the value of an advanced anchor. Grabbing the barpoint in #90 gets some real concrete into the position, where grabbing the three point here is settling for a lame duck.

By the way, here ( http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbb....pl?read=89643 ) i thought, hitting and making a point on the head was strong because the offense 5 point was maid. But Nack Ballard shifted 1 checker 1 point and making the bar became the winner. Perhaps anchoring after the hit on 3 is less playable for blue than on 4. Judging the upcoming horizon.

And here it is playing with an asset of a 3 point anchor against the likely asset of a five point.

Every position is different.

Shifting the blot from 24 to 22, 21 to play. Would you grab the anchor?

I'm far more inclined to hit because I can hit from the stacked 6 point.

What will be the anchor play in the shift position? Mistake? Blunder? Whopper?

My first reaction was to make the 3-pt anchor, but White has no board yet and I would prefer a higher anchor anyway. Hitting on the 5-pt seems negative. Yes our 5-pt is important, but slotting into a triple shot while stripping the 8-pt?? I think I would come up on the 22-pt and bring a builder on the 11-pt. Yes the builder would be under direct attack, but it would force White to leave our 5-pt, a point that we both really want to make. Plus, if he was to hit with the 6, he couldn't use it to make his own 5-pt (6-1, 6-3, 6-5).

B/22 13/11

You caught me! I saw the three White checkers back, and automatically assumed Black had a double-digit lead. Just goes to show, you've got to do the counting.

As for the alternative you propose, I still like hitting White on the five point. I would anchor only if I could get an advanced anchor. I think that is the key here. The three point is not enough of a payoff to justify surrendering one or both five points.

But an advanced anchor might be.

Grunch.

Over the board I make the 22 point without much thought but is probably the case that hitting the five point in our board is the correct answer in terms of this as a problem as this seems way too simple, but I have to go with what I would actually do, so

bar/22 24/22

That is the key. Have you looked at Ballards example, where a little shift turned the anchor play to the best move?
By the way, the hit doesn't fight only for the offensive 5 point, but also for an advanced defense point. Without doubles, White is unable to make a point. This is a major issue for the hit. If white hits back, what is likely, the send back checker is an additional man from the bar. And in the shifting position i suggested, making the anchor is perhaps even a whopper with a little cheese.

There are some pre strategy factors one needs to consider. The cube is in the middle in a cash game. In my opinion, white is in a fair position to consider doubling.

If I am white, and black makes the 22 point. I double. The race is not an issue yet, and I am clearly going to make some key points within the next couple of rolls. Black's strategy falls prey to hoping for the lucky double or making a run with an inferior position.

What is black have going for him? The fact that white's position is, like his, not developed YET! So the correct play is bar-23, 8-5*. Not because the five point is so important, but because the game is still very embryonic and the "keeping white off balance" play, keeps things up in the air. I believe it is THE move which keeps black from seeing the cube. In fact, I would [black would] welcome the cube at that point simply because the game is so undeveloped.

Bar/23, 13/10. But if capt will double me I'll make the 22pt.

You mean, if you know the cube is coming you will make the 22 point? Disagree.

If i would know, the captain doubles the anchor play and the hitting play not, i would anchor. And beaver the double, awaiting a raccoon. Perhaps he will fritter some other equity on the way. Could be a nice proposition.

Obviously the choice is between hitting or making a mediocre anchor.

White is covering a lot of the board right now, and virtually assured of improving her position on her next roll no matter how black plays. If black hits he will be hit back at least 75% of the time and fall way back in the race -- and then white will improve her position on her next roll anyway. So black can delay white from improving her position for a single roll, but only for a single roll, and in doing so is likely to cost himself around 20 pips in the race.

Making the mediocre anchor doesn't do much, but it does keep black safe for a roll. After white's roll she will most likely either make her 5 point, black's 5 point, or at the least a bar point. However, she'll also have to consolidate her position as she will no longer have so many checkers covering so many landing spots on the board. Therefore on black's next roll he will either start making points of his own or have somewhere to place his own builders.

Solution: bar/22 24/22

Based on an advanced anchor to the 22, you have a beaver? I believe you are over-estimating your position, but okay we'll wait for the solution and we will see.

bar/22, 24/22

I would do this on the board without any thought. Even looking at it more closely, the only other candidate I can come up with is bar/20. Still, I don't think it is worth risking getting pointed on when you have a decent anchor on the 22. I'd much rather build the anchor and then start attacking.

Let's see...he has your 5 slotted and you rolled a hit...seems simple enough to me

wow what a mess i'm just gonna make the 22 point and see what happens with his five blots on the next roll, could be cube'n time as he is high stacked and or stripped

Bingo! My thoughts exactly. As i had not read the posting's until my first answer had been posted.