Problem of the Week #96: February 13


Cash game, center cube. Black on roll.





Should Black double? If Black doubles, should White take or drop?


Note: All ‘cash game’ problems assume the Jacoby Rule is in effect. That is, you can’t win a gammon unless the cube has been turned.

Seems like a pretty clear double for all the usual reasons. Asymmetric gammons, better structure, another blot you can possibly pick up, etc. I'm also taking it. The race is basically even, so if I can hop out fast, I'm fine, and his dead guys on the 1 make that more likely. If somehow he doesn't cover the 3 and I hit it, I'm in great shape. The big stack is annoying, but I'm always going to have shots on his back men unless I get closed out. Seems like there's not enough direct threat of me getting closed out or trapped (or a long dance), and I have real winning chances when i don't.

If this happened in game, I don't think I would even consider the double. I'd wait until I covered the blot in the home board. This game looks pretty even right now. White is a little ahead in the race, black has better threats. If the position is a double, I imagine it is very thin, so I'd wait.

Answer - No double/take

In this highly volatile position the double could be mandatory, to activate the gammons. And i would ponder to take, so than it is for sure a double. But it is only a 3 point board. A return shot could stop the attack suddenly, The single man can escape, the race is anybodys ballgame. the front position is not strong, but can improved.

Double, and an annoying take, but a take.

grunch

I double here. Man in the air, decent home board already and a nice structure/chance to cover the blot and another possible hit in the outfield later. Get gammons activated and push our edge.

I probably make a crying take here as white. It's obviously awful if we get closed out and end up with two men in the sky as black escapes and hits our blot, but this is low enough chances for a take; and if we do escape quickly we pose some very real threats to black's back men with our OK structure and limited outfield control, and obviously as such, cube ownership suddenly becomes very attractive.

Double/Take

There is a very strong chance of getting closed out and losing a gammon here, so I'm debating whether or not it is too good to double and an easy pass OR if white has enough winning chances. If white drops she is basically losing 1 point, but if she takes and loses it is likely she'll lose 4 points.

Most likely black is going to cover his blot and white won't escape on her next roll. However, there is about a 17% chance black won't cover that blot, and also about a 10% chance white will escape.

Black also doesn't have an anchor. This is a problem because even if white doesn't escape the checker on her next roll, she could come in and also hit one of those back checkers. This would take away half of black's next roll and make it much harder for him to close out his home board. If white does escape the checker she'll have a huge lead in the race as well.

I think it is close, but I also think there is enough volitilty to make this a double for black and a take for white. If black had an anchor I'd probably say it was a pass for white.

Should Black double? YES!
If Black doubles, should White take or drop? DROP!

13 fairly well distributed men in the zone? Double/drop

Seems like an easy double, easy take to me..

This is the perfect time to double, not a turn sooner or later. You can easily cover to blot next turn with 5s or 4s, and you have 6 rolls to hit the blot in the outfield. When I'm in a position that looks like a double might be a bad idea, I think of all the bad rolls for me. In this situation there are a couple meh rolls (62, 21) and only 1 sort of bad roll (22). Almost every roll benefits our goals.

For white I would take here because the race is about even, white can hit a checker after coming in, and it is a bit hard for black to improve his 4 prime. This game could turn into a pretty nice back game for white if things turn sour.

Double/take

My first impression was immediate: double and pass! But then I noticed that White must still lead in the race. In fact, were the White checker not on the bar, this would not even be a double.

Let’s get an exact pip count: Black has 119, while White's count is 113. That is closer than I first thought. This position proves once again that you have got to do the counting. Meanwhile, Black has nines (36, 45) and tens (64) to hit a second checker. Black also has fours and fives to make his three point, 22 good rolls in addition to the 6 hitting shots above (only 22 because fours are duplicated). If Black can close out both White checkers, he has a significant chance to win a gammon.

This is certainly a double. As White, I hate to pass, but I think I must.

My solution: Double/pass.

For the Record
I am so often wrong that I like to post my record in these messages. It's kind of a truth-in-advertising thing. Grunch: I have been answering these problems without the use of a bot, and before checking the excellent solutions of others, since Problem 28. My record at this writing is 53%.

Double in a flash. So many market destroying sequences. Already a pass with too many gammons lurking.

Is it a double ?

+
a better board
a lot of builders
an indirect shot
a 4-prime

-
3 blots
a 4-prime
wasted checkers on the ace-point
one man back vs. 2 men back
better race for white

All 4's and 5's and D3, 63 are good for black = 29/36

Its a double, but still a take because of the holes on 2 and 4, which gives a chance for the last man as well as chances
for a 4-anchor

Yeah the open four point and buried checkers on the one are really key to the take here imo. You move those two from the one to the four and it instantly becomes a monster pass.

Black is trailing 119-113 in the race, but with him on roll, it's practically even. 2 men trap vs only 1, but Black has a better structure overall and he's on roll.

But Black's 1-pt means that he has 2 checkers buried and that he'll have a hard time priming White, especially with 2 men still trapped. The good news is that against 1 back checker, it's usually better to blitz/close out than to prime. For such a plan, Black's 1-pt is probably an asset.

Now, we have quite a sweet spot here. Lots of volatility, lots of gammon danger (on both sides).

Let's analyze it from White's perspective if doubled. Assuming the 3-pt will be covered, if he enters on the 2-pt, he better hopes that he can trap Black and force him to crush, otherwise he's in big troubles. He still has his 5 and bar points open and they won't be that easy to do, because he has an awkward structure (big pile on the 8-pt) and a bad spare on the 3-pt. How likely can he survive a blitz? Sure, he could get lucky and escape with 5-4 or 6-4, but that's a very long shot.

This problem probably has to do with reference positions, but I lack them, so I'll go with my instinct.

As White, I would probably drop, so it must be a double.

Double / Drop

Very surprised so many people think this is a drop. Black still has 2 checkers stuck in white's home board. Realistically, what are the chances that white will get closed out? Seems pretty remote to me.

With the four you will have a two way horse bet.