Can you be a little more prolific, despite your brainfag from the doubles match.
Do you regard the 10 point as a strong blocking point, which holds white in the game?

Hi,

i have done some rethinking about this problem.

I already calculated the Miss Cover chance (9%), but the chances in a blitz are better for white than in a normal blitz,
the reason for this is that white has returns with a 5 (from the bar) and a 4 (from the ace-point).
So how big is the Hit Hit Miss Cover chance = 28*19*15*19/(36^4) which is about 3/4*(1/2)^3 which is about 9%.
Oh now i see i missed another thing, the moves where black starts with a 1-2-3 combination or D4 have no return hit for white, so instead of the 28 hits i should
calculate the 18 returnable moves so the Hit Hit Miss Cover chance is about (1/2)^4 = almost 7%.
So now when we give the ace-point with the extra checker 10%, that gives 26%, a borderline take.

Because its al so narrow i will calculate it a bit more precise:

Miss Cover = 8,6%
Hit Hit Miss Cover = 5,8%
Total 14,4% so its a narrow drop (with 10% for ace-point + checker).

How much difference does the 10-point make in this?
Without it the percentages are respectively: 7,6% and 5,7% Total 13,3 %, which might make the drop a bit more clear.

Even if Matt Cohn-Geier would come and says: "I think this position is a pass, and I am willing to pay a point and the cube for the highest stakes you can afford", i would not hesitate and offer him a chair in this position. It is a strong double, but it isn't close. It is the volatility, that makes the double strong. But i carry coals to Newcastle. May the owl of Minerva begin her nightfly.

Bless-ya

With almost any roll that hits, Black is going start a fight for control of his five point. If he wins it, he'll have a five-point prime, and be a lock to win the game. In this position, that is enough advantage to justify a close double. For his part, White should not drop. After all, the battle has yet to be joined. If White can win the five point, then he'll be in the game until the end.

My solution: Double, take.

For the Record
I am so often wrong that I like to post my record in these messages. It's kind of a truth-in-advertising thing. Grunch: I have been answering these problems without the use of a bot, and before checking the excellent solutions of others, since Problem 28. My record at this writing is 52%.

grunch. double/take

double/take.

I think its a clear double. race lead, better structure and a few crushing threats (31 22 44 33). the take is closer, but i think that if black fails to point, then white is just a four away from seriously stabilizing the position.

double/take