Problem of the Week #77: September 19


Cash game, Center cube. Black on roll.




(a) Who is a favorite?

(b) Black to play
5-2
4-1
2-1
6-5


Note: All ‘cash game’ problems assume the Jacoby Rule is in effect. That is, you can’t win a gammon unless the cube has been turned.

(a) Who is a favorite? I like white on all 4

(b) Black to play
5-2 i slot the 4&3 points
4-1 i slot the 9&7 points
2-1 i slot the 11&7 points
6-5 i slot the 7&hit on 1 point

Black is a favorite, I think (but maybe not be that much) White is in no way guaranteed to hit and the race lead is huge.

As for the plays.

5-2: 13/6
4-1: 13/8
2-1: 13/10
6-5: 13/2

Only play where I don't make the safest play possible is with 2-1 because I want him to break his anchor to hit.

I think black is a favorite...

1. 13/6
2. 13/8
3. 13/10
4. 13/7 13/8

when ahead in the race, race...

White is a clear favorite, not in pip count (White's behind), but certainly his position in relation to Black's candlesticks.

5-2 13/11 13/8 White's 64 gets me but the rest of his 6's only hit when he breaks his anchor.
4-1 13/8 De-stack the worst candlestick (gave serious consideration to hitting on the ace but don't think it's worth the risk)
2-1 13/10 De-stack and hopefully don't get hit, should be able to do something constructive next roll if white doesn't hit.
6-5 13/8 13/7 slot the bar in the hopes of not being hit and starting to develop a better position.


Back to whose a favorite - Would you give the cube if you were black prior to rolling in this position? After with an average roll? Would you really pass the cube if you were white? I'd probably beaver

The pip count says it all. Without counting it's easy to tell that Black is leading by a ton. The exact count is 140 to 161. Black is one good roll away from getting some structure, and after that his racing lead will translate into a significant advantage. While he is waiting, Black should temporize, and play cautiously.

My Solutions

Problem 77a: Black is the favorite.

Problem 77b:

• With 5-2, Black should play 13/6.
• With 4-1, Black should play 13/8.
• With 2-1, Black should play 6/3.
• With 6-5, Black should play 11/2.

For the Record
I am so often wrong that I like to post my record in these messages. It's kind of a truth-in-advertising thing. Grunch: I have been answering these problems without the use of a bot, and before checking the excellent solutions of others, since Problem 28. My record at this writing is 50%.

I think white is favored.

I think black should take the opportunity to hit the ace point blot. If white fails to hit the the odds of black getting home safely improve a lot, the higher he is forced to enter the better obv. Even if black enters on say the 3 point, that gives black a safe way to play 4's and 6's which helps quite a bit.

5-2: 8/1
4-1: 6/1
2-1: 13/10
6-5: 13/2

Uneducated comment- I thought that white was the playing favorite, because of the anchor in black's home and the unlikelyhood of black strengthening his position on this upcoming roll.

As White, I have flexibility to run with my home blot, or safe it with the right roll, or move towards my goal safely.

Would accepting a double be automatic here?


That's what I was thinking.

Isn't that the whole point of these exercises?

Grunch;

(a) White is favorite

(b) 5-2, 8-1*
4-1, 6-1*
2-1, 6-3
6-6, 13-7, 6-1*

Grunch. With pencil and paper at luncheon. Teammates looking curious.

There are veterans, who feel favorite owning both 5 points. But backgammon is a race. Both stragglers vanished. Racing lead. Black is favorite.

5-2 13/6 Don't harm.

4-2 13/8 Dito.

2-1 13/10 If white has a 5 and wants to hit, he has to break his defensive anchor. Rule of thumb: if you have to give a shot, and you can do hardly anything constructive, make at least the hit unpleasent for your opponent.

6-5 13/2 The toughest decision. Despite going behind the anchor, it leaves only aces to shot. We have already 3 dead and 2 semi-dead checkers. So this is the begin of a board which will be with every additional point more and more a weapon, shifting the white blot from an asset into a liability.

Black is favorite, but if white gets the cube now by black shipping it over, he can beaver, because the cubeleverage turns black in an underdog, i think. Don't be a prat!

(Do you have position, racing advantage and threats?

Black is favorite. Play safe. 13/6, 13/8, 6/3, 13/2.

Since this is a cash game and the cube is in the middle, with black to roll if black does not cube here (if he does obvious beaver) what does white need to cube on the next roll ? does white have too hit or at least need a shot ? does black lose any equity because of the columns come bare-off time ? any gammon possibility here ?

a) Why is this even a question? Black's position is horrible. The fact that he's cleared out his back checkers is not all that helpful because he's going to have to leave blots multiple times. On the other hand, white already has the offensive and defensive 5 point.
White is clearly the favorite.

b) 5-2 - 6/1*, 13/11 - Hitting is almost always going to be good in the early game. Black can afford to get hit back and he'd like white to reenter and the 5 point and give black more room on his home board. 13/11 is good because white doesn't gain much by hitting on the 11 point if it means that he loses his anchor. If black can cover on the 11, he has a valuable blocking point.

c) 4-1 - 6/1*

d) 2-1 - 13/10 - Again, black wants to try to get another outfield point even though it is not as valuable as the 11 point

e) 6-5 - 6/1*, 13/17 - The bar point would be very valuable. Since white is being hit, it is worth the risk.

Hey, I'm just warnin' ya. If you want the right answer, see what Aaron likes!

FYP. I'm not as good with the cube questions, and I tend to miss technical positions. I also don't respond every week, and sometimes when I don't respond it's because I have no idea. So my score will be artificially inflated.

As for this spot, I think black's the favorite, but not by a lot. Backgammon is ultimately a race, and having run both back checkers out and having white with three in the back has got to be good for black. His structural deficiencies are a problem, but it's nothing too ugly just yet.

So it looks like the plan is to race.

52 --> 13/7. I hate the stacks, but the only other alternative is 13/8 13/11, which leaves white a direct shot with the stronger board and the perfect opportunity to start to catch up.

41 --> 13/8. Same game plan. Hitting deep doesn't do much of anything except bury a checker, and potentially lose 25 pips in the race if white returns with a 1.

21 --> 13/10. There's no safe play here, and it's either going to be 13/10 or 6/3. I take 13/10 because there's not a lot of reason to be trying to build up a home board right now. The challenge is to get home safely, and having another outfield point would be helpful. So since I'm forced to leave a blot somewhere, I'll leave it where it can help me if it happens to survive. (Also, white will generally have to hit from his anchor for 13/10, therefore costing him an asset to hit. If we play 6/3, he can hit for free.)

65 --> I guess I go with 13/7 6/1*, but I don't like it that much. 13/2 sends a checker deep, but if I'm going to do that, I'd rather hit. 13/8 13/7 is another option, but if I'm going to slot with 13/7, I'd rather make a tempo play with the 5 than simply continue stacking on the 8 point.

a) black is ahead.

b1) 13/6
b2) 13/8
b3) 13/10
b4) 13/2
in b4 13/7, 5/1* seems bad with blacks bare home board. he will get hit back over half of the time and sometimes get double hit back.

I could be wrong but I think hitting loose on the 1 is the wrong idea in this spot. We have a huge lead in the race and still have some spares to use. Might as well play safe and wait for a better roll. Hitting loose on the 1 will still be available in the future if we dont get one.

but these dont mean black isnt a favorite...

Greetings All,

(a) I would prefer White because they have an easier time making their home board (already has the 5 point made and can slot at will in his home board) and is bound to get a shot at some point = flexibility. Black on the other hand as quite a bit of work to do (even tough has no back men), bringing men in safely and building his home board as well as he can.

(b) Black to play:

5-2: 13-8,13-11 (I want white to break my 5 point)
4-1: 13-8 (what else?)
2-1: 13-10 (same reasoning as 5-2)
6-5: 13-2 (here I give him less shot to when I slot on the 7)

Dear Mr. Robertie, "IS BENTZON MONTE CARLO'S LAST WORLD BG CHAMP? It's time for a modern day tournament makeover" titled the chicago point, with two pictures (http://www.chicagopoint.com/sepmc.html). I think, the problem of the week is also a perfect illustration, how backgammon has changed. Anyone bet in the heydays on black? The giants of today are wearing t-shirts, no jackets. You own the five-points? How about the race?

a) Black is favorite.
Assume black plays safe. Black is favorite not to leave a blot. And favorite for it to be missed. Below is chart of playing safe (not that all are best move)
Make new points: 13 rolls, 22 33 44 55 66 42 53 64 61
No blots: 9 rolls 11 41 32 52 43
1 Blots: 10 rolls 21 31 63 65 54
2 Blots 4 rolls 62 51

b) Black to play
5-2: 13-7
4-1: 13-8
2-1 : 13-10 (not 6-3, that dups your own 5's)
6-5: 13-7,5-1* , although more than 11 shots of 13-2, it is too hard to cover 2 point blot next roll.

After some reflection, and especially after seeing the above "blot chart" I think my original answer was wrong. I change my answer to concur with the above.

Glad to have NutzyClutz on my side in this chouette.

(a) Right off the bat, I think that it must be pretty close in terms of equity. Although Black has the pip lead, White has both 5-points and a better structure overall, so I would tend toward White.

My guess: White is a slight favorite


(b)

5-2: 13/8 6/4 Unstack, build the board
4-1: 13/9 8/7 Unstack, slot/bring builders
2-1: 13/11 8/7 Unstack, slot/bring builders
6-5: 13/7 6/1* Unstack/slot, tempo hit

a) I'll take black here. Nice race lead, white still has 3 men back, and while his position isn't the most flexible, it's not hopeless either.

b)5-2 13/6. No reason to leave a shot, and it's not like you're killing potential flexibility with this move.

4-1 13/8. Same as above.

2-1. 6/3 13/10 is safer in a way, but who really cares if you make it next turn, and it doesn't add much building potential since 6/4, 5/3, and 4/2 are already covered by the 8 and 6 stacks. Making landing points in the home board will actually be useful if you cover it next turn.

6-5 This is the trickiest one. 13/2 plays like above, but in this case the alternative 13/7 6/1* isn't close to useless. It leaves more shots, but when the guy on the 1 is hit (alone), you can cover the 7 with a lot of entry rolls. When the guy on 2 is hit, your next turn isn't good unless you roll doubles, and plenty of rolls leave another forward blot which is awful. If you hit on the 1, and even if he enters high and hits on the 7, at least you have safe points in your board now, sort of like a switching play. I'll go with 13/7 6/1* here.

Black
13/6
13/8
6/3
13/7 6/1*

(a) I think the size of Black's lead gives him a narrow advantage.
(b) Trying to play as safely as possible -- Black wants to out-race White. Possible argument for 6/3 for the third roll, but Black would rather have White break his anchor on the golden point.
5-2: 13/6
4-1: 13/8
2-1: 13/10
6-5: 13/2