Excellent problem, good discussion.

Ultimately, im gonna have to agree with pineapple on this one. Having a blot on the one looks like it could be an asset as much as a liability.

Not a huge thing but my preference is having a builder 4 pips away rather than 3

3*/2/1, 13/12(2)

The pedestrian play, 3/2*(3) 8/7 is quite strong. White can dance, for a gloomy position with real gammon danger (if gets closed out without moving further, the 4 outfield men will be expensive) ; he can enter on the ace point for a gloomy position with fewer gammons ; he can enter on the 3 point and get whacked again and finally he can enter there and be about even money in the race or get some kind of indirect shot.

How could Black do better ?

13/12 instead of 8/7 looks wrong. Leaving a killer 5-3 from the bar for a mere point making 5-4 is a bad trade.

A loose hit doesn't seem right either, mostly because White forward position is rather smooth and will tend to crunch cleanly. It could be different if White board was more choppy or if he had isolated anchors in the outfield.

If Black gets hit, he's unlikely to pick a second blot and the priming equity against only one checker doesn't seem to compensate the risk of accidents.

Hi Mike,

I sometimes use the asterisk as well, but I would write 3*2 (without the slash). The use of the x is very normal in chess, and I have played it a lot, thats why I use the x,

greetings k.

This very well may be right. With a racing lead, Black should almost never volunteer a shot.

The problem here is that Black does not have a racing lead. After hitting 3/2*(3), 12/11, Black will be ahead by only one pip. From the bar, White will fan 16 times, hit outside with 53 (2 rolls), enter and run with 63 (2 rolls), enter on the three point with 21 or any 3 except 53 and 62 (9 rolls), and enter on the one point 7 times.

So, 25% of the time, White will end up with a blot on the three point. Black can attack this blot, but may not want to hit loose. After all, if he is planning to hit loose, now is the time, not later.

Letting White sit on the three point in front of a four-point prime seems weak as well. White is favored to jump a four-point prime on the first roll. Hence, my suggestion that Black leave the eight point slotted. He can cover with any four or five, 26 rolls.

A classic bear-in postition supports your idea. It occurs in a tied race where White has a single straggler slotted, say, on Black's 6 point. Black's other home board points are closed. If Black can hit loose, he becomes an instant favorite, 25-to-11. If he passes up the hit, he is stuck in a 50/50 race.

All the racers in this discussion hope to squeak by in a tight race. The hitters want to settle the issue once and for all.

In favor of the racers, we should note that the straight pip count, which shows Black trailing by one pip after White is hit, should be adjusted when White is on the bar. His largest rolls -- especially his largest doubles -- are all fans. A certain number of "phantom pips" should therefore be added to White's count.

This is a great position with some outstanding analysis by everyone.

I am a bit surprised there has been no discussion of the move I prefer, 3/2* 13/11 13/12.

The reason I like this move is because it simplifies most decisions from this point forward.

If White rolls any 2 or 11 (12/36) and puts Black on the bar, Black will be facing an easy redouble/drop regardless if he enters with a 2 or not. (yes, a 62 for white would make him much TGTD, converting 50% gammons from that scenario would be worth another point for White).

If White fails to hit us on the 2pt, ALL of our subsequent rolls will complete a 6 point prime. Rolling home safely from there will be over 90%, and relatively straight forward- with some decent gammon chances as well.

Of course, just because this move makes things simplest does not mean it is the best.
But, if we are playing OTB, it enables us to avoid calculating anything (hoping we don’t make an error in this process), and substantially reduces variations thusly.

My move: 3/2* 13/11 13/12.

Kruidenbuiltje picks this move (see page 1).

Leaving a blot on the two point must be better than on the one. It's a duplication thing. With a blot on the one point, White has two good entry numbers: ones to hit, and twos to reach escape position. With a blot on the two point, only twos are good.

3-2*-1 ,8-6 . I'm hitting and going to one point because a player named "Bear" used that against me. He won, and we discussed. I put it into my overall game, and it works. I'm going 8-6 because no need to leave extra blots.