(a) 43
There are three candidates:
I think that all three have some merit.
22/15 tries to exploit the blot in White's board. White will only have four rolls that are really trouble for Black: 61, 51, 65
and 66. But except for 66, which makes two points, I'll reenter with 20 out of 36 rolls. The major problem that I have with giving up the anchor is that I'm not guaranteed to escape the next roll. Also, the threat of escaping isn't strong enough to let me double next roll if White misses.
6/2 5/2 makes a point a the expense of my builders. If White breaks his anchor, I don't have much ammunition (but 54, 44 and 55 crush). However, I still have a checker in the outfield to pick off an escaping checker. The outfield checker does a very good job where it is. It would put the onus on White now, who would have to leave a shot with 62 and 64. Rolls like 65 and 63 strip him of his builders and 44 and 55 also suck for him. If he rolls a good roll though, like 61, I might be in big trouble.
So this leaves 15/8 for maximum builders at the expense of my outfield control. It will be more difficult for him to leave the anchor now, but if he rolls something good now, like 61, I might have the same problems as with 6/2 5/2. I'll have to use some builders for moving pips so that my anchor keeps intact. Then there is exactly one builder left, and White's next roll is going to decide it.
It seems to me that the outcomes of 6/2 5/2 and 15/8 are similar if we look two rolls ahead. The only bad issue with 6/2 5/2 is that if I then roll something like 51, I would either have to break the prime or leave a direct shot. So let's stick with
15/8.
(b) 51
I guess here we don't have much choice. I really don't want to break my prime so I would play
15/9 with the same ideas as with playing (a) 15/8. He can't really hit and cover except with 66 (but 66 would crush anyway, no matter how I play). His sixes are duplicated and the blot in his homeboard gives me a chance to play along the lines of my suggestion for (a).
Last edited by Viikatemies; 04-06-2009 at 04:56 AM.