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Problem of the Week #31: October 4 Problem of the Week #31: October 4

10-05-2009 , 05:48 PM
Problem of the Week #31: October 4


Cash game. Center cube. Black on move.




Black to play 5-2.
Problem of the Week #31: October 4 Quote
10-05-2009 , 10:41 PM
Let's see... reject 6/1(*) right away, we are behind on home board points and have no anchor. No slotting for the same reason.

So... search for possibilities...
13/8 23/21
13/8 24/22
23/16
23/18 24/22
23/18 13/11

I prefer the last of these, 23/18 13/11, challenging for an anchor, getting a runner moving, keeping the blots connected, and creating a new builder for the 5-point, while staying flexible in general.

If it turns out that's too dangerous, then 13/8 23/21 to challenge for an anchor now, before Villain makes any more progress.

23/16 seems too passive, even if White whiffs we will usually have to spend another move on the blot next roll, and he can continue to make progress.

23/18 24/22 gets both runners moving and challenges for an anchor but seems too loose in the face of White's strong position.

13/8 24/22 seems like it will always be worse than 13/8 23/21 unless there's some technical issue I'm missing.
Problem of the Week #31: October 4 Quote
10-06-2009 , 08:24 AM
I would play 23/18 with the five, trying to make an advanced anchor. If I get hit, I have some return shots. For the deuce, I don't like running, because I don't have a substantial lead (the race is practically even and it's only a few moves into the game). I don't like 13/11 because, although it creates a builder for the important 5-point, it strips the midpoint and I cannot use that builder for the 9-point, because it would mean breaking the midpoint. I don't want to slot the 4-point into a double shot (might have considered the 5-point). Therefore, I think I would play 24/22 with the deuce. It would be more subject to attack, but I can now escape this man with some 6s. Interesting problem.

My take: 23/18 24/22
Problem of the Week #31: October 4 Quote
10-06-2009 , 09:02 AM
I think it's clearly between 23/18 13/11 and 23/16. I prefer 23/18 13/11 because I don't think the added danger of hits outweighs the added chances of development. I think 23/16 is a bit too static.

Going to do GNU rollouts now. Will refrain from commenting again.
Problem of the Week #31: October 4 Quote
10-06-2009 , 12:34 PM
I don't want to stop on the bar point. White is filling in his prime and will gladly take a 6 AND a 1 to accomplish two good things at once (slot/hit). Also, you're losing the construction battle, so getting one of your checkers free is a big win.
Problem of the Week #31: October 4 Quote
10-06-2009 , 01:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aaron W.
I don't want to stop on the bar point. White is filling in his prime and will gladly take a 6 AND a 1 to accomplish two good things at once (slot/hit). Also, you're losing the construction battle, so getting one of your checkers free is a big win.
I would tend to agree with you if we could get deeper into the outfield, but we have to stop on the 16-point, which 1.) leaves more shots than a deeper run, 2.) leaves Villain's checker on a more useful point when the blot gets hit, and 3.) makes it tougher to safety the blot next roll.

These are all arguably small effects, but with all three working in the same direction, I think a more dynamic play (more dangerous but more flexible) becomes relatively more attractive.
Problem of the Week #31: October 4 Quote
10-07-2009 , 12:12 AM
I automatically play 23/16 in these positions. I see no reason why not to do it.

I don't like stripping my midpoint if i don't have too.
I don't like hitting on 1 point when i am outboarded.

I now see i actually duplicated rolls like 4-2 and 4-3 too.
But I think that is a minor issue.
Problem of the Week #31: October 4 Quote
10-07-2009 , 01:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pineapple888
I would tend to agree with you if we could get deeper into the outfield, but we have to stop on the 16-point, which 1.) leaves more shots than a deeper run, 2.) leaves Villain's checker on a more useful point when the blot gets hit, and 3.) makes it tougher to safety the blot next roll.

These are all arguably small effects, but with all three working in the same direction, I think a more dynamic play (more dangerous but more flexible) becomes relatively more attractive.
The arguments that you made for running farther are valid, but useless in this spot because the existence of a better running play with a different roll has no bearing on this play. You're not comparing running to the 16-point with running to the 14-point. You're comparing running to the 16-point and STOPPING on the 18-point.

Stopping on the 18-point leaves 24 shots; running to the 16-point leaves only 14 shots. I would rather white hit and leave a checker behind the prime rather than have white hit and slot the prime. Leaving fewer shots plus a better result if hit makes running to the 16-point the better play.
Problem of the Week #31: October 4 Quote
10-07-2009 , 02:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aaron W.
The arguments that you made for running farther are valid, but useless in this spot because the existence of a better running play with a different roll has no bearing on this play. You're not comparing running to the 16-point with running to the 14-point. You're comparing running to the 16-point and STOPPING on the 18-point.

Stopping on the 18-point leaves 24 shots; running to the 16-point leaves only 14 shots. I would rather white hit and leave a checker behind the prime rather than have white hit and slot the prime. Leaving fewer shots plus a better result if hit makes running to the 16-point the better play.
Um, yeah, I realize that.

The issue I'm pointing out is that the run is not far enough to be clearly better and therefore one should search for reasonable alternatives, rather than saying "ZOMG have to run in this spot." Like at least one other poster did.

Also, flipping your argument around, I'd rather have 12 return shots when hit, instead of 4.

That said, every move has drawbacks here, and running might turn out to be best. Only the bots know the answer.

Last edited by pineapple888; 10-07-2009 at 03:06 AM.
Problem of the Week #31: October 4 Quote
10-07-2009 , 11:06 AM
13/11 seems like the best play for the 2.
You want to bring down a builder and try to make the 5 point.

After that, we have to find a 5 and the only one that makes sense is 23/18.
I don't really like splitting checkers and moving one of them to the bar point but it should be relatively safe at this point in the game.
Problem of the Week #31: October 4 Quote
10-07-2009 , 02:57 PM
23/16, 13/11 ainec.

the 13/11 is a must if we are to build our board. slotting the 18-point is the best use of the 5 because if gives us the chance to obtain an advanced anchor.

i was reading the horan vs. pauen game (from the semi-finals of the great athens tournament 1994) the other day from BR's book and (i think) a similar situation to this came up in the opening roll...

yeah i found it...

granted it was a tournament match and this is a cash game, but i dont think the ideas/theories change that much because of it.

BR commented that in the opening few rolls, the two main goals are to:

1. to make strong blocking points on your side of the board (for black, it's the 5, 4 and 7 point in that order).
2. to make an advanced anchor (for black, on the 20, 21 or 18 point).

achieving both these goals early will guarantee a big early edge.

back to this scenario:
whilst running all the way with 23/16 is "okay", it doesnt help to create a better balanced board position for black to play future rolls most effectively.
Problem of the Week #31: October 4 Quote
10-07-2009 , 10:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pineapple888
Also, flipping your argument around, I'd rather have 12 return shots when hit, instead of 4.
I don't think this is a good thought. Offering an extra 10 immediate shots for 8 potential return shots is a bad trade. White will always get those 10 immediate shots, and you will only sometimes get your 8 return shots.
Problem of the Week #31: October 4 Quote
10-09-2009 , 07:01 PM
Twos Are Better Than Fives
It’s still early, the fifth move perhaps, so Black finds that there are only a few ways for him to play a five. He can move a backman to his opponents bar, 23/18, bring a builder down, 13/8, or hit loose on his one point, 6/1*. Nothing too exciting, except in this position, and on just his third move, Black better have a darn good reason before he hits on his own one point.

Black’s options for his two are more interesting. He should reject the dangerous slot, 6/4, from his over-stacked six point, and choose one of the following ways to play it.
  • Bring a builder down, 13/11, from his midpoint.
  • Slot his twenty-one point, 23/21, bidding for an advanced anchor.
  • Run, 23/18/16, into his opponent’s outer board.
Even When It Works, Running Doesn't Always Work
Of these choices, running is the worst. When it works, Black is often obliged to use his next roll to complete the escape. That costs Black two consecutive turns, his third and fourth of the game, with no improvement to his offense. White, meanwhile, will continue to improve a home board that is already better than Black’s. By the time Black returns to the task of building his, it may be too late.

And that’s just what happens when running works. When it fails, and Black is hit, things get worse. Black then wastes the same two turns, but now he gets hit on the first, and must reenter from the bar on the second.

Anchors Are Good
Slotting the twenty-one point is Black’s second best play. There are many occasions, after an opening 31, for instance, where it is correct to slot the twenty-one point in a position like this. Such a slot must be made on the turn immediately after the opponent makes his five point. If you delay, the slot may become more dangerous or impossible on the following turn, because your opponent will have brought a third and possibly a fourth builder into his outer board. One problem here is that White has already reinforced his eight point, so Black now faces two builders when he slots. If White has only two men on his eight point, as is the case after an opening 31, Black faces only a semi-active builder on the eight point.

A bigger problem is the lack of offense with this play. After Black plays 23/21, his best five is probably 13/8, a play that does nothing to enhance Black’s offensive position. Black cannot afford the delay.

It is instructive to compare the two slotting plays, 23/21 and 23/18. They are more alike than they are different. Both slot key high-anchor points. Both risk a direct double shot. Both force White to hit if he can, and hit loose if he must.

Anchors and Builders Are Better
Black’s best play by far is to bring a builder down with his two, 13/11. This gives Black the front board development he needs. The five can be played to 23/18, starting White's bar point. Fundamentally, this play is best because it does two things -- starts an advanced anchor and slots a builder -- rather than only one.

My solution: 23/18, 13/11

For the Record
I have been answering these problems without the use of a bot, and before checking the excellent solutions of others, since Problem 28. My record at this writing is 75% correct.
Correct: 28(a), 29, 30
Incorrect: 28(b)
Problem of the Week #31: October 4 Quote

      
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