Black has a limited number of ways in which to play a 6: 8/2*, 13/7 and 21/15* are the only possibilities when he moves the 6 first. By playing the 1 first, Black can also move 13/12/6 or 8/7/1. Of this latter pair, 13/12/6 can be ignored because it transposes with 13/7/6 (which I will consider). The other, 8/7/1, does not transpose. That’s because playing the 6 first hits, 8/2*/1, while 8/7/1 does not.
To simplify the discussion below, I have assigned a letter to each candidate play. Although I could have used A, B, C, and so on, I have chosen an arbitrary combination of upper and lower case letters, even throwing in some italics. A, B, C, etc. might just as easily been used.
Black Plays 21/15*
Play E: 21/15*, 5/4
Play B: 21/15*, 8/7
Play S: 21/15*, 13/12
Play R: 21/15*, 15/14
One of the most important decisions for Black is whether to play this position as a backgame. No matter what he decides, however, hitting from the 21pt is a very dubious plan. Without the 21pt, Black loses the chance to play a backgame (for the moment), and even when Black decides he does not want to play a backgame, he gives White three numbers (1, 3 and 4) to hit back with. So long as Black has two checkers stranded on the 24pt, he should hold onto the 21pt so that they remain connected to his outfield forces. Hitting from the 21pt, therefore, ranks at the bottom of Black’s choices. Having said that, of the plays enumerated above, Play R is probably the best. It minimizes the number of blots at a time when White is sure to be attacking. Second best is S, which avoids slotting in front of White’s rear checker.
Black Plays 8/2*
Play A: 8/2*, 2/1
Play a: 8/2*, 5/4
Play o: 8/2*, 8/7 (italic)
Play O: 8/2*, 13/12 (italic)
When Black chooses to hit on the 2pt, he may think he is playing some version of the hari-kari maneuver. The 2pt is a bit too deep, however, for that plan. If Black wants to be hit, the best way to accomplish that is by playing down to the bar point with the 6. Should Black elect to hit on the 2pt, then slotting the 4pt (Play a) is the best way to commit suicide.
Another possibility is to hit on the 2pt, and then continue on by making the 1pt (Play A). This play launches an attack, but it’s a feeble one that almost certainly cannot succeed. With only 8 checkers in the zone, Black doesn’t have enough ammunition to follow it up. At the same time, making the 1pt is awkward in case Black is forced later to switch into a backgame. Nevertheless, I like this play better than leaving a blot on the 2pt.
All the plays in this group are weak. The only reason they don’t rank below hitting on the 15pt is because they do not strand the rear checkers. Other than that, they are not a whole lot better.
Black Plays 7/1
Play o: 8/7, 7/1
Making the 1pt without hitting is even worse than making it after a hit.
Black Plays 13/7
Play N: 13/7, 5/4
Play O: 13/7, 7/6
Play D: 13/7, 8/7
Play d: 13/7, 13/12
The pip count is Black 173, White 108. Black trails by 65 pips, a bit too low for most backgames. His best option is to adopt a two-way game plan. He can aggressively slot, and be prepared to go forward when he is missed. When he is hit, he can play a backgame, and have better timing than he has now.
To this end, slotting the bar point is clearly Black’s best 6. Lifting the blot up to the 6pt (Play O), should not even cross Black’s mind for an instant. Should he cover (Play D)? I think not. By blocking White’s rolls of 63, 64 and 66, Black may be able to force White to abandon his 8pt.
That leaves just two choices. Black can try the double slot (Play N), or else he can diversify his outfield builders (Play d). I think these are the two best ways to play this 61. I have a slight preference for Play d, because it gives somewhat better chances to complete the 4-point block when White cannot hit, and also gives better outfield coverage when White escapes.
My Solutions
Ranked from best to worst, here are my top 6 solutions:
Play d: 13/7, 13/12
Play N: 13/7, 5/4
Play D: 13/7, 8/7
Play O: 13/7, 7/6
Play A: 8/2*, 2/1
Play a: 8/2*, 5/4
For the Record
I am so often wrong that I like to post my record in these messages. It's kind of a truth-in-advertising thing. Grunch: I have been answering these problems without the use of a bot, and before checking the excellent solutions of others, since Problem 28. My record at this writing is 54%.
Last edited by Taper_Mike; 10-15-2012 at 05:51 AM.