Problem of the Week #14: June 7

Cash game, center cube. Black on roll in both positions.




(a) Black to play 2-1.




(b) Black to play 4-3.

ill give it a shot

a) 6/5* 6/4*
seems like the only other option is 9/7 8/7, but making the bar doesn't really block either of the 2 white blots. plus it gives white the chance to anchor next turn

b) im kinda torn between 20/13 and 13/9 13/10, but im leaning towards 13/9 13/10. white has 9 return shots i think, but if white misses then black should be able to trap white and win a gammon a decent amount i think. plus even if white hits from the bar, whites inner board is weak.

edit: completely missed 6/3 7/3. i might like that better than 13/9 13/10

(a) 6/5* 6/4*. Of course the "obvious" move is to make the bar point, but in this position, with the white back men so far advanced, the bar point is not going to be very helpful. It's just going to deprive you of builders for desperately-needed home board points. 6/5* 6/4* accomplishes a few things. Firstly it restrains white's back men from escaping. Secondly, it unstacks the 6 point. Thirdly, it slots the important 4 and 5 points so one of them will hopefully be made next roll. Obviously White is quite likely to hit one of your blots as he rolls on, but his board isn't very strong and you have a good anchor, so that isn't too much of a worry.

(b) The quiet 20/13 looks best. Black has a big lead in the race and should play for safety first.

The problem with 13/10* 13/9 is that it doesn't accomplish much. Black's board is nonexistent, so White can easily roll on, form an anchor and get into some sort of holding game. It gives you a bigger lead in the race, but you already have a very large one, and you don't get extra points for winning by 60 pips instead of 50. It does bring builders down, which is nice, but again builders aren't thematically correct when you're planning to win with a race lead. Instead you should be planning how to bring your back men home safely. Therefore, breaking the midpoint seems very counterproductive.

Finally, 7/3 6/3 looks ghastly, completely missing the point. It has the same thematic drawbacks as 13/10* 13/9, but hitting and bringing builders down to extend the prime is a lot more useful than the three point sitting there on its own. Also, it allows White quite a few rolls (6-6, 3-3, 6-3, 6-1, 3-1) which build the five point on the head of your poor small blot.

yea i think you are right about 20/13

Pretty much agree with what has been said so far.

a) We have the anchor and making the bar point, though nice doesn't really do much for us with whites back checkers so advanced. The double hit gives us a great chance to become a clear favorite in this game with little risk.

b) Hitting and giving up the midpoint and also giving white plenty of numbers to either hit a flyshot in the outfield or attack the blot on the 20 point doesn't look good here. 20/13 also gives us a needed spare on the midpoint.

a) I'm not a big fan of playing 6/5* 6/4*, it seems too reckless for me. Don't forget you have a blot one the 9 point as well. The advanced anchor makes it safer to hit inboard, but not enough imo to leave so many blots lying around, even with white having 2 checkers on the roof. Making the bar point is the safest option, but doesn't accomplish much indeed. What about 8/5? You still hit one and you have plenty of builders to cover if white misses.
b) 20/13 without too much thought. Even though hitting is tempting, your home board is too weak to really make hitting worth it imo.

I'm going with 6/5* 6/4* for (a), because the potential upsides are big (unstack, make great points), but the potential downsides aren't so bad with the nice anchor. Also, hitting 2 is fun.
For (b) I'm going boring and playing 20/13. Our position looks a bit awkward after 13/9 13/10*, and 7/3 6/3 doesn't do a great job of blocking. I think after 20/13 we have a bit more flexibility to decide what our game plan will be based on what happens to white.

b) 20/16/13 and I don't think it's close. The problem with hitting off the 13 or pointing the 3 or 4 points is you still have a vulnerable blot on the 20 pt.

a) I'm inclined towards 9/7 8/7 to make the bar. But if you're going to risk it and hit I'd rather do 6/5* 13/11, which duplicates fives and leaves you with lots of hitting builders if you don't get hit on white's entry.

a) It's time to pick a path to victory. Do you go on an assault and revert to a backgame if it fails, or do you hold out to try to pick up a loose blot?

My first reaction is to hold out for the loose blot because of white's brittle position. He's going to have to start breaking points very soon, and you've got some decent coverage to attack. In the meantime, you would be building up your home board as best you can. The problem with this is that 5s and 6s really screw things up by placing checkers deep in your home board or forcing you to break.

The other option is the double hit. In this play, you're basically in an all-out blitz. If things go your way, you'll get a couple more home board points and a better prime so that white might be forced into awkward rolls that will allow you to keep picking up checkers and putting them back. If things go poorly, white's board isn't that well developed so you'll likely get in and maybe establish a second anchor or an outfield point.

I think in the end, the blitz is better. When things go wrong there, you've got a back-up plan. In the other play, when things go wrong, you simply lose.

Also, I think in your position you want to extend the game rather than shorten it. You've got the structure disadvantage and front-loaded spares, so recycling checkers may not be so bad.

b) 20/13. That blot is in big trouble, so there are two things you can do about it. You can get him to safety, or you can attack something. The problem with attacking is that it makes your position very blotty and you don't have a home board. Also, if you hit white's blot, then he's more inclined to hit loose on his 5 point because now if you hit him back, he's going to have more ammunition to make an anchor and cause problems for you down the line. By cleaning up this turn, you have a clear win (ie, a positive advancement in your position). By hitting, whether or not it's a win for you depends on how the dice are in the next few rolls.

20/13 looks massively best to me in b), I think it's the easiest problem of the week so far.

The double hit looks pretty weak since black only has a one point board, and white is a favorite to enter both checkers and hit at the same time. I would simply make the bar point and hope to execute a more reasonable attack next turn; white probably won't be able to clean up both blots in the meantime. Even if things go poorly, this at least leaves you with some permanent structure. The idea that you have a license to strew blots around the board just because you have an anchor seems silly to me.

I would just move the blot to the midpoint in the other position. Hitting with the 3 and breaking the midpoint seems out of the question with 3 men back and only a one point board. The other reasonable play would be making the 3 point, but this seems wrong since it allows white to attack the blot on the 5 point with his numerous builders.

I also think it's worth mentioning that the double hit in fact creates 3 blots and not 2, since it fails to safety the blot on the 9 point when making the bar would have.

Rolls which safety both blots for White: 6-1, 5-1, 4-1, 3-1, 2-1, 1-1, 5-4, 6-5, 5-5. That's 17 of 36, very close to half (should probably also count 6-6, which is going to require you to break your back anchor to hit, which would not be much fun). And the vast majority of the other rolls get one of the blots to safety; the only ones that safety neither blot are 3-3, 2-2, 4-2, 3-2 as far as I can see. If you play it safe and make the bar point, you put White on roll with already a 7-pip lead, and it is overwhelmingly likely you will not get a good attack on him. Half the time he safeties both blots, and most of the rest of the time he leaves you with a one in four shot of making a point on his head, plus a one in nine shot of hitting loose.

If only Mr. Robertie had done a better job of rolling, getting the 43 in the first position and the 21 in the second, this would be so much easier. Also, Chris, your avatar has me singing the Doom Song.

For those of you making the bar point--what's your plan next turn? If white hasn't cleaned up, and you roll well, then you can make a point or something, which would be excellent. If not, what happens? You are probably dumping checkers deep in your home board, possibly behind an anchor, rendering them much less useful. The spares on the 6 belong on the five and four points, so you should put them there. (I hope.)

Either attack his blots more sensibly if he fails to safety or button up, or play a mutual holding game. I prefer this to forcing myself into a back game unnecessarily, possibly with 5 men back.

Doomie doom doom, doomie doom doom doom

I saw a squirrel

Also, attacking in position A is far from forcing yourself into a back game. That's ludicrous. It's a blot-hitting war in which you possess major advantages, namely having an anchor and being behind in the race.

Edit: I sure have drunk a sizeable amount tonight. How about you guys?

I didn't say hitting forces you into a back game. You indicated the worst case scenario after making the bar and so I was pointing out the worst case scenario after hitting.

-- Great roll rarely create good problem. (Ancient Chinese proverb)

In (a), some of the issues revolve around how white plays moving forward. If he rolls 61 and does something horrendous like 21/20 17/23, you're probably in much better shape making the bar point because you will get more than your usual share of chances to hit, and those hits will come at more opportune times for you.

If this somehow turns into a mutual holding game, then white must have screwed up pretty badly or you rolled 33 and decided to advance that anchor to the bar point (probably not the right play). I really don't see any reason this should end up as a mutual holding game.

White can roll a 1 and anchor.

He's not going to want that anchor very long, so even if he gets it he will break it to keep his checkers connected. He has such a strong outfield presence, and your home board is undeveloped, so the time to run is now, not 5-6 rolls from now.

I think we need to consult the oracle. (Snowie or Robertie)

How much of an equity difference do you mean by clear?