Quote:
Originally Posted by httassadar
8/1*. Partly because it is against one man back and hence we attack; partly because other moves all look bad to me.
Messing up your gapped 6 prime to attack deep seems really bad to me. You hold the 7 point, so there's not much value in making the 1 point (which is the logical followup after hitting there). You don't have enough checkers down there to complete a closeout since you're still back at the midpoint. I think that this play is a pretty big blunder.
How do you win from this position? You can't win a race and you can't blitz. You also can't hang out in the outfield to try to pick off that last checker when it makes a break for home. That leaves you with your prime as the only path to victory.
I'd play 13/7 6/5. Even though you're down by 15 in the race, your timing is terrible because too many pips are tied up in your ace point anchor. This means that getting hit isn't as bad as it otherwise might be because you preserve your timing a bit.
White is desperate for a 4 to run that back checker, and if he fails to get it, you'll have two spares for a 6 prime, plus you would break the 8 point to make the 5 point (which makes a connected 5 prime with the back of the prime slotted -- a 5.5 prime?), giving you what amounts to a triple shot to cover. Also, if white fails to hit your blot at the midpoint, you've got a few extra indirect shots to make the 5 point as well.
Making your 5 point is huge in terms of becoming a real threat to white. If I rolled a 21 here, I would break the bar point to make the 5 point and give him the 6 to escape. If he fails in the next roll, you're looking really good with a double direct to cover and force white to roll exactly 1-6 to escape.