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Originally Posted by OmahaDonk
Valid points of course. Isn't it likely that if he hits us at the 11, that we nail him back at either the 20 or 11 (or both ) coming back?
If he rolled a 61/63, then no since he would cover the 5 point. And no if he rolls 66. But even if he doesn't cover, you might hit, but you're not gaining as much as you think you are. This starts to get into longer term ideas, which is that you're so far ahead in the race and he's got two points in your home board, so sending checkers back tends not to hurt him nearly as much. What you gain from hitting on the return is small relative to what you've lost when you don't hit in return.
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I think our offense is much better than his at this point, trading pieces seems advantageous. Let me know if this is just plain wrong
You might want to play this position out a few times (by that, I mean a few dozen). You'll see that bearing in against two points isn't that easy. White will have a sufficient amount of time to hold those points, and try to force you into leaving blots. Then he's got the opportunity to unload those checkers into the outfield, and keep pounding your lone checker until he's built up enough of an offense. It's not quite as easy to win as it may initially appear. You'll find that the gap on the 3 point becomes problematic, as well.