The threat of being closed out immediately is small, and with two open places to get back in and scramble around, I think black would have a take if white doubled (even after a fan). But if white waited even one more roll, it might turn into a drop (because missing a second time would likely be a market loser since white will have many more checkers lined up to make more points).

OTB, I might drop even though my brain tells me to take. I don't trust myself that much in these types of positions because I've never looked that closely at them.

Clearing our home board's 6-point is a mistake, imo, because we need a landing pad for our boys. This position and roll sucks, but we're making it worse for ourselves if we nit up and clear our 6.

On the other hand, playing 13/8 3/2 seems reckless to me, as we give our opponent a decent shot to hit us, and with the one point that has the best chance of hitting him, no less! The only play that seems to balance risk and aggression, imo, is 8/3 8/7 -- we slot our bar point (carrying with it a certain amount of risk, sure), maintain our home board's integrity, and possibly give ourselves a chance to hit a checker if Villain rolls something funky.

Also, look at Villain's outer board -- it'll take him a minute to get set there even if he does hit us, so unless we get stuck on the bar for longer than we might expect (20/36 to escape), we'll be in decent shape to get outta dodge, maybe hit one of his checkers on the way back, etc., not to mention the one checker he'd have to use to hit us would open up that last point in our home board for us.

8/3 8/7

Will keeping our house win enough added gammons to compensate for the increased losses from volunteering a shot?
What is a better landing pad for the guys on the midpoint? The 8 point or the 6 point?

As I still have not checked a bot to see what the correct solution is to this problem, I thought it might be fun to pose a few questions for those in the same boat.

My solution above was to pay now: 13/7, 8/7. Unfortunately, that is the minority position. So, here are a few questions for those who would pay later:

1. What is your plan? Will you continue to crash your board until absolutely forced to leave a shot?
2. If you are forced to leave a shot, will you tend to leave the fewest shots, or might you then decide to "pay now," and break from the rear?
3. What happens if you are hit after breaking your board? If you fail to enter, would you accept a cube? (Aaron already indicated that while he thought this might be a take, over the board, he might pass.)

From playing against gnub a ton it basically always seems to mark leaving shots in these types of spots as a mistake, so I'm probably just breaking my board, clearing from the front if I have to, and praying for doubles etc. This could well be wrong in this exact spot but the bots usually always seem to favour shot minimisation so otb think I carry on with that theme.

If hit and fan I'm not sure its a take depending on the exact spot. Otb I probably pass.

Black cannot wait on the bus station for the right getaway. Something has also for him to go. So the position for the hit could be less harmful later. Second. His men have to come in the zone for a close out. The midpoint could be a battleship to fight from. Therefore, i would break the 8 point. Last. If there are no builders in the zone, i would take in a shot after a hit.

Yes. You have a large enough lead that wastage is not the primary concern.

It depends on how bad it is in general, but minimizing shots is going to be the primary consideration. For this situation, I would minimize shots because as time goes forward, white's ability to attack is going to get weaker because he's losing his outfield control. If his outfield control were stable, I'd try to play in a more connected manner.

Check the race and look at white's ability to close you out or trap you behind a 5/6-prime.

after a closer look im doing 8-7 and 8-3 forgot about the one 1 in my original fast answer