Hi. My first post here.

Your move and why? Thanks.

13/9 5/3 seems to minimize shots.

Help anyone ?

Should blonde hit a blot? That's the question.
What's safer for the long run?

Since white owns the bar point, he's not going to be nearly as worried about getting his back anchor moving at any point when he gets a shot. This leads me to play more conservatively and do 13/9 5/3. I would only play something like 13/9 13/11 only if white were stuck deep behind a prime.

Notice that white will have to break one of his anchors soon. This is another reason to minimize shots.

I got suckered when you posted this on Stick's site (http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbb...mes;read=81404). Here's what I wrote there:

BTW: Thanks for the problem. I hope you'll keep posting here.

Grunch.

13/9, 5,3. Struggling to see what else could be better.

13/9 5/3

Working to clear the midpoint, and keeping the most robust structure posible. Even when we get hit, white has no covers and we are shooting at a blot.

The fact that it's even a question causes me to stop and think...but I can't seem to find anything better than the obvious 13/9 5/3

- SOLUTION -

According to a 3 ply rollout the 13/9 8/6 play earns almost 0.07 more.

I'm no expert, but after playing it out a few times and thinking about it, this what I can say (I ask for comments on this):

After the best move, in what is almost a 50-50 position, blonde can only hit correctly with 11, 22, 55, and 21. 55 is practically forced, with 22 she can hit since it doesn't leave extra blots and keeps 3 anchors, and the other numbers are blotting double hitters. After a double hit, blonde will be praying for a non-return hit, else the gammon losses can skyrocket. Even if brown dances completely after that, blonde can still struggle to cover the four and clean up all the blots. Brown is never really unhappy (blonde is an underdog after the correct double hitters).

After blonde passes up the hits with the other numbers (if she hits, good luck to her), the worst number that brown has is 55, and it's not really that bad (it's just that blonde doesn't mind it). Almost all of the other numbers play fine. One can clean up the blots, restore the eight point with small 1s or play with a checker from the midpoint to the nine or eight with 4s and 5s, picking up a blot from the nine or eight at the same time (it's good to know the correct checker plays after 13/9 8/6). It's inevitable to leave one more direct shot at any point (well, pretty much), the trick is to leave it as soon as possible while blonde's front position is weak. Preserving flexibility and putting a spare on the six pt is also key.

After 13/9 5/3, brown has below average sixes to play (important), less good rolls to really improve his position, and, in consequence, he'll have more trouble taking care of his midpoint problem.

With timing and playability problems, brown should make a move now to not let his game deteriorate more in the near future while the defender's overall position has weaknesses.

I would go with 13/9 and 5/3

The 5/3 is almost a given, and there are only 2 choices where to move the 4. I chose 13/9 because it leaves you with the same #s to be hit as moving 6/2 (5 or 2), and if white does hit, 13/9 would be sent back less than 6/2, not to mention it doesn't damage your home structure.

I believe that this is the result of the rollout, and the logic (pay now while white is weak) makes sense, but I guess I would fail to properly estimate the risk/reward ratio.

13/9 5/3 leaves 2s and 5s for a total of 20 shots.

13/9 8/6 leaves 1s, 2s, 4s, and 5s for a total of 32 shots, with many of those either being immediate double hits, plus chances to get the second on the bar in another roll or two.

I don't see the extra 12 shots plus double hit potential being balanced properly by future flexibility.

If you have that kind of doubts then you should play it out and see what happens and gain experience by it. That's what I did which made me arrive at my conclusion.

You're afraid of being hit and did not realize that the defender is not ready to hit - he's the one that should be afraid of leaving blots. Like I said, having a blot on his home board without a direct cover number, he can only hit with a few numbers, otherwise he is risking too many gammon losses. He can only double hit with three numbers, and with those three numbers he'll actually be a small underdog (note that in the position of the problem it's 50-50).

Many times it happens that when playing a reasonably well timed back game that can't be primed you should pass up the hit when you're not ready to contain. The guy with the racing advantage should realize this here and should also understand that it's very unlikely to not leave many shots later on, especially as he tries to clear the midpoint. The correct play works because it is the play that leads to positions where you'll get hit less often (when he's ready to hit), so it's more safe.

We need to look ahead here, so it's best that we play out the position to understand it.

Maybe Mr. Robertie can add something more, since I am no expert.

I could not improve on your explanation.