Quote:
Originally Posted by Flaccus
- SOLUTION -
According to a 3 ply rollout the 13/9 8/6 play earns almost 0.07 more.
I'm no expert, but after playing it out a few times and thinking about it, this what I can say (I ask for comments on this):
After the best move, in what is almost a 50-50 position, blonde can only hit correctly with 11, 22, 55, and 21. 55 is practically forced, with 22 she can hit since it doesn't leave extra blots and keeps 3 anchors, and the other numbers are blotting double hitters. After a double hit, blonde will be praying for a non-return hit, else the gammon losses can skyrocket. Even if brown dances completely after that, blonde can still struggle to cover the four and clean up all the blots. Brown is never really unhappy (blonde is an underdog after the correct double hitters).
After blonde passes up the hits with the other numbers (if she hits, good luck to her), the worst number that brown has is 55, and it's not really that bad (it's just that blonde doesn't mind it). Almost all of the other numbers play fine. One can clean up the blots, restore the eight point with small 1s or play with a checker from the midpoint to the nine or eight with 4s and 5s, picking up a blot from the nine or eight at the same time (it's good to know the correct checker plays after 13/9 8/6). It's inevitable to leave one more direct shot at any point (well, pretty much), the trick is to leave it as soon as possible while blonde's front position is weak. Preserving flexibility and putting a spare on the six pt is also key.
After 13/9 5/3, brown has below average sixes to play (important), less good rolls to really improve his position, and, in consequence, he'll have more trouble taking care of his midpoint problem.
With timing and playability problems, brown should make a move now to not let his game deteriorate more in the near future while the defender's overall position has weaknesses.
I believe that this is the result of the rollout, and the logic (pay now while white is weak) makes sense, but I guess I would fail to properly estimate the risk/reward ratio.
13/9 5/3 leaves 2s and 5s for a total of 20 shots.
13/9 8/6 leaves 1s, 2s, 4s, and 5s for a total of 32 shots, with many of those either being immediate double hits, plus chances to get the second on the bar in another roll or two.
I don't see the extra 12 shots plus double hit potential being balanced properly by future flexibility.