Thank you I had actually never considered why taking off the 6 is so much better than taking off the 5 (and leaving a blot of course). Trying to get the board closed as long as possible certainly makes sense
But why is 5/4 5/off so bad, here?
white has 15 crossovers before the roll to black 12. that is 3 crossovers difference
I remember one of your rule saying that:
-2 or less crossovers difference play safe
-5 or more play bold
-3 or 4 is the grey area where you take into account other criteria such has:
-3 tend to play safe and 4 tend to play bold
-have I an odd number of checkers born off after the play : yes
-does opp have a blot in his board: no
-does opp have a bad bearing off structure: no
-do I have a speed board: no
I understand this is not an exact science but here 3 of the criteria point to safe and the safe play ends up being a big blunder (0.130)
What feature of the position makes it so compelling to leave the blot when I am not forced to?
Here is a constrasting position where all main contenders are tied and there is only a 1 crossover difference.
I would have expected the decision to be not even close.
White - Pips 38 (-12)
Black - Pips 50 (+12)
Black to Play 5-1