Open your mind - Page 15 - Backgammon Forum - Discuss Backgammon Strategy, Clubs and Books

13/9(2)                      Eq.:  -0,050
       0,488 0,062 0,002 - 0,512 0,055 0,002 CL  -0,017 CF  -0,050
   
13/11(2) 6/4 3/1             Eq.:  -0,160 ( -0,110)
       0,454 0,057 0,002 - 0,546 0,071 0,002 CL  -0,107 CF  -0,160
  
13/11(2) 8/6(2)              Eq.:  -0,164 ( -0,114)
       0,454 0,062 0,002 - 0,546 0,078 0,003 CL  -0,108 CF  -0,164

White is given more flexibility:

White - Pips 123

Black - Pips 117

Code:

13/9(2)                      Eq.:  +0,051
       0,526 0,060 0,001 - 0,474 0,050 0,002 CL  +0,060 CF  +0,051
 
13/11(2) 8/6(2)              Eq.:  -0,043 ( -0,094)
       0,490 0,061 0,002 - 0,510 0,072 0,003 CL  -0,033 CF  -0,043

The relative value has not changed a lot, as white has more flexibility anyway. If black leaves a blot, it will be in direct range. If white leaves a blot, it will be in indirect range.

White is given a strong homeboard:

White - Pips 107

Black - Pips 117

Code:

13/9(2)                      Eq.:  -0,219
       0,432 0,057 0,001 - 0,568 0,059 0,003 CL  -0,138 CF  -0,219
   
13/11(2) 8/6(2)              Eq.:  -0,290 ( -0,071)
       0,414 0,059 0,002 - 0,586 0,083 0,002 CL  -0,196 CF  -0,290

Also here is no drastic change. Black has the golden point, and a white hit could help black in his timing.

White is given less flexibility:

White - Pips 107

Black - Pips 117

Code:

8/4 8/6 3/1                  Eq.:  -0,018
       0,494 0,080 0,002 - 0,506 0,067 0,001 CL  +0,002 CF  -0,018
   
13/9(2)                      Eq.:  -0,034 ( -0,016)
       0,490 0,064 0,002 - 0,510 0,034 0,001 CL  +0,012 CF  -0,034
 
13/11(2) 8/6(2)              Eq.:  -0,055 ( -0,037)
       0,483 0,065 0,001 - 0,517 0,045 0,001 CL  -0,015 CF  -0,055

Creating flexibility is not better anymore, than maximizing contact.

Black has a strong homeboard:

White - Pips 113

Black - Pips 124

Code:

8/2 8/6                      Eq.:  +0,073
       0,515 0,128 0,004 - 0,485 0,081 0,001 CL  +0,079 CF  +0,073

13/9(2)                      Eq.:  -0,105 ( -0,177)
       0,466 0,062 0,002 - 0,534 0,031 0,001 CL  -0,036 CF  -0,105

Now black can permit himself to keep maximum contact. White has no defensive point, and a hit would be fatal.
If white throws high numbers and black throws little numbers, white's 7w-point will become isolated.
If black is hit, white will still have a dangerous journey homeward.

Conclusion: see _z_'s commentary.

Quote

08-08-2015 , 07:57 AM

#352

yogiman

adept

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 784

Position ID: tnMAmCFuc1CAUA
Match ID: cIkEAAAAAAAE

White - Pips 140

Black - Pips 130
Black to Play 1-1
Created with www.BGdiagram.com

Quote

08-08-2015 , 10:40 PM

#353

uberkuber

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 3,032

Hitting White loose on the ace doesn't seem smart because Black leads (slightly) in the race, White has a 4-pt board and also has 2 advanced anchors. That being said, I would make the blocking 10-pt, (hopefully) forcing White to move off one of his anchors or to play from his homeboard.

B/24 12/10 11/10

Quote

08-09-2015 , 01:06 AM

#354

Karol Szczerek

enthusiast

Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 92

Leading the race, I can't really see anything other than B/24 12/10 11/10.

Hitting without blotting would be great tempo play, helping to claim the outfield first if opp dances. But here it's impossible, and blotting would be too big of an opportunity for the opp to gain tempo, claim race lead and outfield control.

Quote

08-10-2015 , 05:00 AM

#355

yogiman

adept

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 784

White - Pips 140

Black - Pips 130

Code:

bar/24 12/10 11/10           Eq.:  -0,038
       0,488 0,166 0,005 - 0,512 0,161 0,008 CL  -0,022 CF  -0,038

bar/24 12/11 2/1*(2)         Eq.:  -0,123 ( -0,084)
       0,475 0,166 0,003 - 0,525 0,193 0,013 CL  -0,087 CF  -0,123

bar/24 11/9 2/1*             Eq.:  -0,401 ( -0,363)
       0,412 0,132 0,002 - 0,588 0,264 0,033 CL  -0,338 CF  -0,401

Not grapping the opportunity to seize a containment point is extremely bad.

The pips are of no issue here:

White - Pips 156

Black - Pips 130

Code:

bar/23 12/11 2/1*            Eq.:  +0,422
       0,590 0,211 0,004 - 0,410 0,114 0,005 CL  +0,276 CF  +0,422

bar/23 24/23 12/11           Eq.:  +0,206 ( -0,216)
       0,541 0,191 0,004 - 0,459 0,128 0,005 CL  +0,144 CF  +0,206

A lot of checkers have to pass each other, whereas both sides have little or no connectivity. This will very likely not take place without hit(s).

Black has bad coverage after hitting loose, 6 to 4:

Code:

bar/24 12/11 4/3 2/1*        Eq.:  -0,075
       0,484 0,174 0,003 - 0,516 0,191 0,014 CL  -0,061 CF  -0,075
  
bar/24 12/10 11/10           Eq.:  -0,105 ( -0,029)
       0,475 0,165 0,005 - 0,525 0,171 0,009 CL  -0,060 CF  -0,105

This illustration is somewhat flawed because the checker has been turned into semi-dead. That means there are two semi-killed checkers, which offers a very good reason to use one of them for practical purposes. So the value increase of hitting will be less dramatic if we take this into account. But enough value will be left to consider the facts that:
– black wants to use his builder on the 6-point to make the 5-point, instead of the 1-point
– in the original position black's 4s are duplicated.
In the next position black needs a 3 instead of a 4 to move off the 24-point:

Code:

bar/24 12/10 11/10           Eq.:  -0,140
       0,462 0,174 0,006 - 0,538 0,182 0,010 CL  -0,088 CF  -0,140

bar/24 12/11 2/1*(2)         Eq.:  -0,151 ( -0,012)
       0,470 0,160 0,003 - 0,530 0,199 0,015 CL  -0,111 CF  -0,151

So duplication is of greater relevance than the 5-point thing.

White's 5w and 7-point are stripped. If black doesn't hit in the original position, white hopes to throw a 4 or 6 sothat she can move her rear checker. Otherwise, she likely has to leave two blots while breaking a point, or has to semi-kill in her homeboard. However, this doesn't seem much of a concern, probably because this happens in only 30% of the cases. In the following position white is given flexibility by moving from 7 to 5:

Code:

bar/24 12/10 11/10           Eq.:  +0,155
       0,532 0,195 0,005 - 0,468 0,148 0,007 CL  +0,108 CF  +0,155

bar/24 12/11 2/1*(2)         Eq.:  +0,090 ( -0,065)
       0,526 0,183 0,003 - 0,474 0,173 0,011 CL  +0,054 CF  +0,090

Black seems to have something similar. In case he hits on his 1-point and is hit back, he will hope he will enter on the 20-point. However, there is a fifty-fifty chance that he will enter on the 24-point. That means there will be an extra checker stuck behind. In the following position white occupies the 18w-point, sothat black's 6s are blocked too:

Code:

bar/24 12/10 11/10           Eq.:  -0,534
       0,354 0,140 0,003 - 0,646 0,212 0,013 CL  -0,374 CF  -0,534

bar/24 12/11 2/1*(2)         Eq.:  -0,746 ( -0,212)
       0,330 0,116 0,002 - 0,670 0,250 0,019 CL  -0,490 CF  -0,746

However, this drop is mainly caused because of the fact that the duplication of 4s weights a lot heavier. This is shown when I move 6 to 4 again in the previous position:

Code:

bar/24 12/10 11/10           Eq.:  -0,606
       0,337 0,134 0,003 - 0,663 0,222 0,013 CL  -0,423 CF  -0,606

bar/24 12/11 4/3 2/1*        Eq.:  -0,654 ( -0,048)
       0,343 0,129 0,003 - 0,657 0,247 0,018 CL  -0,446 CF  -0,654

Still, in the other position hitting was best, so this argument has some relevance.

Conclusion:
Generally it seems that the merit and demerit of the hit&blot move are pretty equivalent: it's good when the blot is covered, but it could also happen that a third checker gets stuck on the 24-point. In this case however, the duplication of 4's swings the decision to the safe play.

Quote

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