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Originally Posted by yogiman
I certainly would have doubled this one, and I would have been delighted if my opponent would have taken, and next there would be anxiety.
I've made lots of huge mistakes doubling (and not doubling) these types of positions. I find it tough to go by the visceral feel of these positions -- the no doubles don't look
that different from the passes some of the time. So now I always try to put some numbers on things like I did above. My numbers aren't going to be super accurate, but generally they'll be in the ballpark enough to avoid a big blunder and help guide me a bit if the decision is close.
If I'm remembering right (I don't have it in front of me), Walter Trice's book "Backgammon Boot Camp" has a nice section on this type of decision. Excellent book for any level of player, by the way. Starts off very basic but then later gets into some advanced concepts.
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The next problem is somewhat related.
That big stack on the 20 point just looks like it's desperate to release a checker. Unfortunately, you have to step into a triple shot and make a concession on the home front to move one. I kind of think it's worth it though. So I'd play 20/15 7/6. The two blots in White's board are key. If his board was even a little more together, I'd just play 18/12.