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Need help understanding a roll

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08-16-2012 , 07:02 PM

treeunit

newbie

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 20

match point

I played 13/5*(2) which gnu gives me -2.8% equity.
The bot suggests 13/9 (2) 11/7 (2)

Can someone help me understand this position? I am assuming that when I take him I am giving him more of a chance at a back game. I guess I did it because I was afraid of bad rolls containing a 6.

Last edited by treeunit; 08-16-2012 at 07:30 PM.

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08-16-2012 , 08:00 PM

Taper_Mike

adept

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 1,030

Double Match Point — Eval by XG Roller++

You give the clue in your first sentence. As things stand, you have a 32-pip racing lead, and no need or desire to contain your opponent’s checker. At DMP, there is no reward for winning a gammon, so the best thing that could happen is for this to evolve into a non-contact game. Moving both outside points closer is the best way to do this. A relatively safe “passing” position is the result. Hitting gives your opponent a chance to eke out a last-minute hit, with no attendant gammon reward for you.

Code:

XGID=-B-DBaC----BcB--ab-bbbb---:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:1:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
Pip count  X: 88  O: 120 X-O: 0-0/1
Cube: 1
X to play 44

    1. XG Roller++ 13/9(2) 11/7(2)              eq:+0.785
      Player:   89.23% (G:7.71% B:0.02%)
      Opponent: 10.77% (G:0.34% B:0.01%)

    2. XG Roller++ 13/5*(2)                     eq:+0.769 (-0.016)
      Player:   88.43% (G:36.04% B:0.11%)
      Opponent: 11.57% (G:0.27% B:0.01%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

Unlimited Games, Center Cube — Eval by XG Roller++

With a centered cube, and the Jacoby Rule in force, you cannot win a gammon. Either play leads to double/pass.

Code:

XGID=-B-DBaC----BcB--ab-bbbb---:0:0:1:44:0:0:3:0:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
Pip count  X: 88  O: 120 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 44

    1. XG Roller++ 13/5*(2)                     eq:+1.000
      Player:   87.65% (G:39.05% B:0.10%)
      Opponent: 12.35% (G:0.40% B:0.02%)

    2. XG Roller++ 13/9(2) 11/7(2)              eq:+1.000
      Player:   88.58% (G:7.99% B:0.02%)
      Opponent: 11.42% (G:0.53% B:0.01%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

Unlimited Games, 2-Cube — Eval by XG Roller++

When your opponent holds the cube, you can increase your equity by winning a gammon. Hitting is far superior to the DMP play.

Code:

XGID=-B-DBaC----BcB--ab-bbbb---:1:-1:1:44:0:0:3:0:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
Pip count  X: 88  O: 120 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 44

    1. XG Roller++ 13/5*(2)                     eq:+1.115
      Player:   88.10% (G:39.78% B:0.11%)
      Opponent: 11.90% (G:0.42% B:0.01%)

    2. XG Roller++ 13/9(2) 11/7(2)              eq:+0.829 (-0.286)
      Player:   88.74% (G:9.01% B:0.03%)
      Opponent: 11.26% (G:0.37% B:0.01%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

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08-16-2012 , 08:03 PM

treeunit

newbie

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 20

I see. Thanks for the input and analysis. I have been playing a lot of cash, non-jacoby games lately and this thinking may have eeked its way in here.

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