Hello,
I made this mistake recently,
I know that the take point is 24 %, how can i find that i have more than 24% winning chances in this game ? Any ressources or references positions, litterature or internet readings i should work with ? Thank you !

It's reasonable to work out the probabilities well enough over the board to get to the right answer here.

Blue is 30% to roll a 2 and then White's a favorite, so you have 15+% there. And blue is 25% to roll a 1 that's not also a 2, and then White's doing OK since Blue's a favorite to miss on the next roll, so maybe you get another 10% or so there. And when Blue doesn't roll a 1 or a 2, White usually gets a chance to roll 55 or 66, so another couple percent. So that should plenty to push White over 24%. If the take point was 30% that's tougher to see with this type of analysis, but one could maybe still get there.

In positions like this with 4 or fewer checkers left per side, in my opinion, there is really no substitute for running through all your opponents rolls and evaluating how you look after each one.

Often times you can group them easily, like here you'd have 3 definite losers (66,55,44), 13 near-certain losers (count 1win), 11 rolls containing a 2 which leave you a slight favorite (6 wins), 9 rolls containing a 1 (not 21) that leave you a slight underdog (count 4-5 wins).... so 11 -12 wins in 36 rolls gives 30-33% would have been my OTB estimate.

Like everything, this becomes easier w practice.

For positions with 5+ checkers per side, this quickly becomes intractable and I would recommend you look at the

"Effective Pip Count" for those decisions

In the standard 2-roll reference position (where we each have 4 checkers on the ace point) we have about 14%. This is quite a bit better than that for us because the gap his 2 point gives him a ton of numbers that fail to take off two checkers (I count 12/36 misses for him and 10/36 misses for us).

For us to win, he needs to miss (12/36) then we need to not miss (26/36). Alternatively, he can not miss but not roll 44+ (33/36) then we roll 55 or 66 (2/36), which gives us another 5%, or a total of 29% (based on my rough mental calculations) enough to comfortably take.

Edit: there are some higher order terms I’m not including here, like him rolling a double on his second roll, him missing on his second roll, us missing on our second roll, etc. But this gets us at least in the ballpark.

Hello,
I read carefully your three answers and think a lot about. Golden informations and thought process, thank you all.
Sorry for answering, i feel a little bit ashamed, i will be careful later to check if asnwers have been published.

An other one mega blunder !
I thought i was good in cube decisions...