suppose I'm behind 2-0 in a 7 pt match. my opp who leads doubles to 2.

How do I calculate my take point?:

If I drop he's up 3-0 (4 away, 7 away) so I have 30% match equity.

If I take and lose single game he's up 4-0 (3 away, 7 away) so I have 24% match equity.

If I take and lose gammon I lose the match for 0% equity.

if I take and win single game we're tied for 50% match equity.

If I take and win gammon I'm up 4-2 (3 away, 5 away) for 68% match equity.

for money I need a little worse than 3 to 1 to take when you account for cube leverage, but that's static. How do I know what odds I need in this match score to take?

without accounting for gammons, it seems I'm getting good odds, since by taking i'm risking 6% to gain 20% (is that right?). that's a bit better than for money, and I gain even more if i win a gammon. however if I lose a gammon I lose the match. so as far as my reasoning goes (which is likely flawed, or I wouldn't be posting this) I can take deeper than money if there's little or no gammon potential, but considerably shallower than money if villain has good gammon potential.

hope you gurus can elucidate.

A gammon is only 6-0, not match.

My shortcut which is based on "close enough, I don't want to do match equity calculations at the table" is - Both at least 3 away and within 3 points of each other use a money doubling window. In fact leader should be a little tighter than this with takes and trailer doesn't have to strive to be too efficient with his doubles.

ok, so whenever one player is three away or when both scores are three points off each other you use a money doubling window, with the leader being slightly tighter and the trailer slightly more lose?

Both players 3 or more away and within 3 points of each other. so 3 away, 6away or 9away,11away or 5away,4awy etc..

Good and very tough question!!!

I was taught that TP = (EP - T&L) / (T&W - TL)

or Takepoint = (Equity if Pass - Take & Lose) / (Take & Win - take & Lose)

using your numbers ...

TP = (30 EP - 24 T&L) / ( 50 T&W - 24 T&L)
TP = 6 /26
TP = 23%

But really it's more complicated than that because ...

a) this ignores gammons. you would need to raise your takepoint to account for net gammons lost times opponent's gammon value

b) this ignores your recubes. We calculated a dead cube which assumes you always win with cube on 2. Of course sometimes you will win more. Recube vig might be worth 3% or so (or more) and would lower your takepoint.

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You can use XG to look at the cube information.

From XG, select Analyze / Cube Information ...

You can look at Dead takepoints (assumes you never recube)
and Live takepoints (* I think assumes you always recube, but not sure)

Your real takepoint is somewhere inbetween the two.

For 7 away 5 away (your score) XG gives non-gammon adjusted takepoints of ...

Dead 23.98 % (our 23% calculation probably off due to rounding)
Live Cube 18.18%

The chart I use gives takepoint at 7 away 5 away of 20% (note this inbetween 18 and 24, and also about 3% less than the dead takepoint of 24%)

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Speaking for myself, I don't bother to calcuate a takepoint at the table. Reason: I always get it wrong!!

I gotta be able to ...

1) pull the values for Equity if Pass, Equity if Take & Win, Equity if Take & Win
2) perform the calculation in my head

Some people can do this but not I!!

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I try to rely on common sense and intuition like other posters have stated.

There are certain scores where ...

a) gammon values are (much) higher or much (lower) than money. For example. Example 4 away 2 away or 4 away 3 away. Learn those!

b) takepoints are (much) higher or lower than money. Learn these too!! For example 3 away 3 away or 2 away 5 away.

c) there are exceptions, but generally speaking you take a bit deeper when trailing and drop a bit earlier when leading (especially gammonish cubes)

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For intitial cubes, I would have considered your 7 away 5 away score close enough to money.

The gammon values for both sides is about .55 (a tiny bit higher than money but not enough to really matter) and for initial takepoints I would have assumes moneyish or about 22%. 22% assumes average recube vig.

Note the leader at 5 away 7 away takepoint is 22% per my chart
and the trailer at 7 away 5 away has takepoint of 20% per my chart.

So I'd have been off.... Also keep in mind if you take as the trailer much of the power of your deeper take comes from aggressive recubes!! It is common for trailer in a match to recube much earlier than money.

If you are technically inclined try this article ...

http://www.bkgm.com/articles/mpd.html

Good luck!!