White is leading 5:2 in a 7 point match. Green doubled. White rejected which was a huge blunder.
I understand the reason why this was a blunder: White already had 7 checkers outside.
What I don't understand:
(1)
GNUBG says White has a winning chance of only 0.227 so less than 0.25. As White is leading in the score I thought it would need more than 0.25 to accept?
(2)
According to
https://bkgm.com/articles/mpd.html the market window for player 2-away and opponent 5-away is 30-81. I thought this means that the player (White) can accept when his winning chances are more than 30% which isn't the case here.
Can somebody explain this?