Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Backgammon Forum hosted by Bill Robertie. Discussion of anything related to backgammon: strategy, problems, books, clubs, and tournaments.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 03-27-2020, 03:14 AM   #1
Bogdan314
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 63
Losing a lot of equity when percentages are much better

I'm very puzzled by the loss in equity when I make the hitting move, see below.

I am only dropping the winning chances by 0.5% while increasing the gammon chances by 6.6%, and my opponent only gains extra 2.4% gammons, so why is it such a huge blunder?

I thought it might be due to the match score (trailing 0-2 up to 7p) and this being a normalised equity, but I gain 13x more gammons than games I lose, so it doesn't make sense to me.

Bogdan314 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-27-2020, 11:55 AM   #2
_Z_
grinder
 
_Z_'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 588
Re: Losing a lot of equity when percentages are much better

It's due to the cube. If you had already cubed, 6/1* would be correct. But XG is thinking you should just play safe and get value from the cube by cashing next turn. It's worth giving up cubeless equity sometimes to get in an efficient cube.

You might find my posts in this thread helpful:

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...40/?highlight=
_Z_ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-27-2020, 12:06 PM   #3
Robertie
old hand
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 1,789
Re: Losing a lot of equity when percentages are much better

Z is right. There's a name for this situation: "phantom gammons". You'll win the gammons at DMP or if the cube is already on White's side and the game will mostly be played to a conclusion. But with the cube in the middle, you'll reach positions where Black is better off cashing the game, which in turn eliminates some of the gammons that could potentially be won.
Robertie is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-27-2020, 12:35 PM   #4
_Z_
grinder
 
_Z_'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 588
Re: Losing a lot of equity when percentages are much better

My link is broken.

This is what I meant to point to:

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...40/?highlight=
_Z_ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-27-2020, 12:51 PM   #5
Bogdan314
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 63
Re: Losing a lot of equity when percentages are much better

OHHH I think I understand!! So you mean that a position may promise more cubeless gammons, but when playing cubeful, too many of the paths to those gammons will stumble into a Double/Pass point and not actually get realised? I can understand that. Thanks a lot!
(BTW Z, the link you posted seems invalid, if you have some reading on the topic I'd be very interested. I'll also look up "phatom gammons" in the meantime.)

Then I'm left wondering what kind of trained human logic can we apply in such positions in order to understand that more gammons aren't always better?

How would you analyse the position I've shown when choosing between hitting and not hitting? Are there other strategic indicators that can help us choose the right move?
Bogdan314 is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:39 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online