White - Pips 119. Match Score 4/5 (C)
Black - Pips 111. Match Score 1/5 (C)
Black to Play 6-1
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In this position I played 8/1 which is a whopping error according to XG. XG suggests 22/15. My logic: First, I do not need to worry about a gammon since opp is up 4/5. I am slightly ahead in the race and I do not want to unstack my 22 point and get 6/primed or hit and covered. While my 8 point is keeping his back checkers from getting out with a 6, I figured I would gamble. Why is my 8/1 such a big mistake here?