Game one of a 5 pointer. As Blue I managed to blunder this 5/3. Have a think and I will post Robertie's analysis shortly.

Without checking xg, my instinct tells me to go 8/5*, 6/1. He has a lot of blots open which makes a successful blitz a lot more likely.

I don't like the running play because if we get hit on the one, having a lone (unachorable) back checker leaves us vulnerable to his 10 checkers ready to attack with a flexible blitz/prime option as the game develops. The running play also leaves us having to dodge lots of shots in a holding game to get home, so not a huge advantage even when white misses the shot on the 1.

I agree. After Velocity’s play, it looks looks like you have a strong cube on the rolls where White enters one and doesn’t hit. Hard to see cubing after running unless White rolls exactly 66. So I think running is a very big error cubeful. Maybe smaller error cubeless but still pretty big.

I would also play 6/1 8/5* without a lot of thought.

As Bill has already chimed in, here's his full take on the situation.
I made my 3 point btw. I can see now that I was wrong but was surprised at just how big the error is (0.070)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Your opponent has a checker on the bar and five (!) blots scattered around. Attacking here with 6/1 and 8/5* keeps the initiative and keeps the pressure on White. You may be able to blitz him but even if White manages to anchor, you can just keep picking up his blots and cruising home.

By contrast, making the 3-point takes the pressure off. White can now enter from the bar and either hit you on his 4-point or clean up some blots.

Here's another way to look at the problem. Whenever you hit loose on the ace-point (as you did here) and don't get hit back, you need to cover the blot when you can. So with a 5-3, the first five you look at is 6/1. After that, 8/5* is obviously the best three.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A Boxing analogy might be... you have your opponent down on one knee, get the next punch in quick, don't pause to take a breath or he may rally.

Here's a succinct summary that may help beginners.
1) 8/3 6/3 - Leaves 1 man on the bar, a 2 point board and 1 home board blot
2) 6/1 8/5* - Leaves 2 men on the bar, a 2 point board and 1 home board blot

All things being equal 2) is the superior play. But they are not equal, white has all those juicy blots making 2) even more correct.

...and I'll end it there, sorry to go on guys but I was so annoyed at this error, it's almost what Robertie calls a 'slumper' play.