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Initial Double frequency

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04-11-2019 , 05:45 AM

Stayer

stranger

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 2

Hi,

I was wondering what is the frequency of an inital cube position by a person on roll. Is there a statistical study somewhere that studied this subject?

Thanks,

Stayer

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04-11-2019 , 03:34 PM

Robertie

old hand

Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 1,954

I think you need to restate your question. What you said doesn't appear to make any sense.

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04-13-2019 , 06:22 AM

Stayer

stranger

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 2

What I meant is, what is the probability that person starting the game (winning the openning roll) turns the cube, or in how many games out of 100 the player starting then game will be in the position to issue an initial cube.

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04-13-2019 , 08:39 AM

Robertie

old hand

Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 1,954

Winning the opening roll and playing it correctly makes you a favorite, except in the case of 4-1, where you're a very tiny underdog no matter what play you make. So I will guess that the player who wins the opening roll will make the initial double slightly more than 50% of the time.

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04-22-2019 , 11:54 PM

Al Mirpuri

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 5,485

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robertie

So, the player winning the initial roll will double slightly more than 50% of the time when a game is doubled but how many games will remain undoubled? We have three outcomes: initial roll winner doubles, initial roll loser doubles, the game remains undoubled. What percentage of games will be undoubled?

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04-23-2019 , 08:43 AM

Robertie

old hand

Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 1,954

I would say the number of games that get played to a conclusion without the cube ever being turned is very close to zero.

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04-24-2019 , 12:00 AM

Al Mirpuri

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 5,485

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robertie

I would say the number of games that get played to a conclusion without the cube ever being turned is very close to zero.

Thank you for responding. When I asked it, it seemed worthwhile.

Now, what are those games that remain undoubled? In match play, the Crawford game and those in which one side is too strong to double?

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04-24-2019 , 09:50 AM

Robertie

old hand

Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 1,954

Sorry, I was referring to money games with the Jacoby Rule in effect.

In match play you'd get many more games with no cube turn -- the Crawford Game plus all the games where one side plays for a gammon. But for someone who's keeping track of whether the player who moved first gets the initial double, match play isn't a good choice. There's too many games post-Crawford where the trailer is automatically doubling at his first chance, which presumably will make the results pretty worthless.

I've got to also say that I can't see how knowing the answer to this question would improve anyone's play one iota.

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