What's the best play here and why?

Seems pretty easy: 20/18(2) advanced anchor on the bar, 10/8 save a builder, 13/11 Add a builder for the five point. Very imp is not to play something like 6/4 or 20/16(2)

Black is winning the priming battle, so that should be his game plan. I would not move the anchor until making an aggressive effort to complete the block.

I looked at making the 9pt, but that would mean leaving a direct shot on the midpoint. Besides, owning the 11pt, which is 6 pips away from the point Black really wants to make, is better than owning the 9pt. So my first decision was to bring all three checkers down from the midpoint.

After that, the last choice was whether to play completely safe, by lifting the blot on the 10pt, or to go all out to make the prime, by dropping a builder on the 9pt. The safe play leaves only three spares targeting the two points Black needs to make. Putting a spare on the 9pt does much better, giving Black 2, 3, and 4 aiming at the 7pt, and 1, 4, 5, and 6 targeting the 5pt.

White hits at his own peril. He has a blot in his inner board. All his hits are potentially suicidal. Black can double from the bar if White hits on the 9pt, and he might even have a cube when White hits on the 10pt.

Mike

3 down for sure, after that i need to look at this a bit longer, seems like the 9pt would be correct(I like that blot if i do get hit on the 9pt).

gotta roll...

Having 2 blots on the 10 and 9 points isn't that risky, it's only 6/36 rolls for White to hit.

unless i counted wrong you get hit 8/36 rolls or 25% of the time, which is well worth risk as the position is strong

53, 52, 43 hit. What are the other 2 rolls?

ur rite, i was in a hurry must have counted something twice