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Old 02-07-2019, 05:28 PM   #1
steven_nevets
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Join Date: Jun 2017
Posts: 6
How is this not a double?

While I appreciate the priming potential of White, it would seem that Black is a clear favorite to clear his midpoint and win the race, particularly with the eleven-point as a safe spot. At the very least, wouldn't White have the slightest doubt about a take, thus effectuating Woolsey's Rule?

White - Pips 124 (+11), Match -7 -5

Black - Pips 113 (-11), Match -5 -7
Black on roll. Cube action?
Created with Diagram Builder

GNU reports that a double is incorrect with equity differential of -0.052.
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Old 02-07-2019, 07:57 PM   #2
Aaron W.
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Re: How is this not a double?

Quote:
Originally Posted by steven_nevets View Post
While I appreciate the priming potential of White, it would seem that Black is a clear favorite to clear his midpoint and win the race, particularly with the eleven-point as a safe spot. At the very least, wouldn't White have the slightest doubt about a take, thus effectuating Woolsey's Rule?
Maybe as a practical double against someone prone to playing a little bit weak, you might ship the cube and see what happens. So on that point, you're probably right.

But for me, I'm taking this pretty quickly. I think black's gap on the 4 point is a liability for the race as it's prone to create wastage. My side is pretty smooth and there's enough time for something to happen that I just don't feel that bad about the position.

Edit: Also, black's lead is less than 12%, so it's not even a drop in a pure race. Contact only increases the reason to take the cube.
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Old 02-07-2019, 08:34 PM   #3
steven_nevets
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Re: How is this not a double?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aaron W. View Post
Maybe as a practical double against someone prone to playing a little bit weak, you might ship the cube and see what happens.
This raises an interesting question about Woolsey's rule. Namely, does it suppose the opponent is human and subject to hesitation? Or can it be applied to a bot on the basis that a human might hesitate? In any case, I'd expect a take in this position, and would not predicate my double on the hope of a pass.

Quote:
I think black's gap on the 4 point is a liability for the race as it's prone to create wastage.
The concept of wastage is something I've only recently begun to appreciate, and failed to consider here. If the lone black checker on the 7-point were on the 4-point, would you approve of the double?

Last edited by steven_nevets; 02-07-2019 at 08:38 PM. Reason: Clarity
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Old 02-07-2019, 11:21 PM   #4
Aaron W.
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Posts: 29,346
Re: How is this not a double?

Quote:
Originally Posted by steven_nevets View Post
This raises an interesting question about Woolsey's rule. Namely, does it suppose the opponent is human and subject to hesitation? Or can it be applied to a bot on the basis that a human might hesitate? In any case, I'd expect a take in this position, and would not predicate my double on the hope of a pass.
I'd just call it a quick heuristic and move on with life. If there's a 5% chance that my opponent drops when it's a take (or possibly even a no double), that's easy money and who cares what the theoretical correct play is.

Quote:
The concept of wastage is something I've only recently begun to appreciate, and failed to consider here. If the lone black checker on the 7-point were on the 4-point, would you approve of the double?
Another 3 pips in the race and a better board? It doesn't feel like quite enough, but I could easily be wrong. I'd probably wait one more roll. As long as it's a normal exchange (for example, no big doubles for either side), I think I'd ship it then.
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Old 02-08-2019, 10:42 AM   #5
Robertie
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Join Date: May 2004
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Re: How is this not a double?

Black's up 10% on the pip count, so it's a solid double-take in a straight race. Here there's plenty of additional contact as Black tries to clear his midpoint, adding to White's chances. Give Black another 2-3 pips in the race and I like the double a lot. Still easy take, of course.
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Old 02-09-2019, 11:16 PM   #6
RolldUpTrips
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Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 909
Re: How is this not a double?

Quote:
Originally Posted by steven_nevets View Post
While I appreciate the priming potential of White, it would seem that Black is a clear favorite to clear his midpoint and win the race, particularly with the eleven-point as a safe spot. At the very least, wouldn't White have the slightest doubt about a take, thus effectuating Woolsey's Rule?

White - Pips 124 (+11), Match -7 -5

Black - Pips 113 (-11), Match -5 -7
Black on roll. Cube action?
Created with Diagram Builder

GNU reports that a double is incorrect with equity differential of -0.052.
This is only a double by a couple of pips in a stragiht race, so can't be one with this much contact. I think that even if you move the contact to just opposing midpoints it still probably isn't a double
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