Quote:
Originally Posted by Pocket Trips
Does the skill or playing style of your opponent affect the way you should play certain positions? When you do a rollout on Snowie or GNU the program usually assumes that your opponent is very skilled and will make the correct plays throughout the match. but what if your opponent is not very skilled or has certain predictable tendencies that are different from what the programs would assume your opponent to make?
For example, say you are playing someone who is very conservative and won't hit while leaving a blot unless they have no other choice? should you open up your own play and become even more aggressive? or should you become more conservative knowing you will get less chances to hit back if you are put on the bar? Or is the correct play always mathematically the same and it doesn't change no matter the skill/style of your opponent?
As a practical matter I don't ever adjust my checker plays from the play that I think is 'best', whatever that might be. It's just too likely that I'll end up making a big blunder instead of a clever play that steers the game in the direction I want to go.
Cube decisions are different. Here I might double a little earlier against a tight opponent, or a little later against a loose one. But even here, I won't shade my 'correct' play by very much.
Where psychological factors really come into play is in chouettes. Here there are all kinds of ways to take advantage of opponent's predilections. For example.
I'm in a 5-handed $50 chouette. The box is a very tight player who's a little uncomfortable at these stakes. I'm 3rd to act on the team. We reach a position where we're a favorite but not a doubling favorite -- let's say we're 55-60% to win with low gammon chances. The captain and the guy 2nd in line announce they are doubling. I wait, and the 4th guy waits also. The box takes both cubes, so he now owns two 2-cubes and the other two cubes are still in the middle. Now I'm in great position to steal a point.
On the next exchange we roll a neutral number and so does the box, so the game situation hasn't changed. Now I double. If I've read my tight opponent correctly, he'll pass this easy take so as not to have too much money at risk.
The 4th guy doubles as well (probably seeing what I'm seeing) and the box passes both cubes and continues on against the other two players.
This move is really a semi-bluff. I've got what I think is a lot of fold equity, and if I'm wrong and he takes, I'm still a slight favorite in the position.