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How do you deal with the luck factor? How do you deal with the luck factor?

09-29-2012 , 01:04 AM
..... because, frankly, it's pissing me off.

I don't mind some tilted results, or losing a match because the dice beat me.

But when it's match after match after match, back to back.... perfect roll after perfect roll, while the dice godz are busy laughing during your own roles.... arrrgghh!!

Seriously, what do you tell yourself- that you're earing Robertie Rubies, or something?
How do you deal with the luck factor? Quote
09-29-2012 , 03:13 AM
Yogiman started a very interesting thread on this very subject recently.

Check it out. I think there are some good tips.

What to do against a cold run
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/13...d-run-1226080/
How do you deal with the luck factor? Quote
09-29-2012 , 09:19 AM
You don't. You just have to learn to deal with it slightly better than the opposition.
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09-29-2012 , 01:43 PM
Well, you have to come to terms with the fact that luck is a big part of the game. Even the best players in the world lose matches to much inferior opponents.

For instance, Snowie plays at a much higher rate than me, but I've strung strings of multiple wins against it on many occasions (far fewer than it has against me)

Your superior skill will only pay off over the very long run.

One thing that can help psychologically is to track your error rate by using a bot. This way, when you have a bad run, you can see if has to do with luck or your play.

Let's say you lose a match to a player who you feel is inferior to you, you can confirm this by using a bot to determine the error rate of you and your opponent during the match.

There's certain amount of comfort and cushioning of a loss that can be gained by knowing with certainty that you out-played your opponent but lost only due to the dice.
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09-30-2012 , 12:37 AM
Others might disagree but heres honestly how I deal with it. Some will laugh but it works for me.

First I recognise the 4 types of responses to bad luck and you should be aiming for atleast level 3 and then trying to get to level 4.

Level 1 is thinking this always happens to me. Lots of players tell me this and it's rubbish. do not thingk this way.

Level 2 is thinking my opponent always gets the dice he wants. Again rubbish.

Level 3 is accepting that bad luck is part of the game. You are not happy when it happens but thats life. Good this means you understand reality but the trouble is you are focusing somewhat on the luck factor. And if you are focusing on that you are not focusing FULLY on the game or job at hand.

Level 4 is total indifference to your bad luck. It is what it is. If you are focusing on what has happened then you are not focusng fully on what needs to be done. Put another way focusing on what has just happened cannot change what has happened but it can distract you from what you need to do. Focus on your Gameplan and consider all the possible plays.

I took me a long to to move from level 3 to level 4 but it is worth it.

Along time ago I saw a movie called the Gumball Rally - a race car movie. In the movie one of the drivers hires an italian professional driver. When he gets into the car he pulls the mirror off and throws it away. The other drive asks him why did he do that? He replies "what is behind you is not important". I think of that if I am every in danger of slipping back to level 3 thinking. Heres the youtube clip http://youtu.be/AjGXn249Fc0

Hope that helps.

Last edited by GrantHoffman; 09-30-2012 at 12:52 AM.
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09-30-2012 , 06:35 AM
Great post, Grant!
Me I am between level 3 and 4 with a slight edge to 4.
Just when stake is involved, I may fall back to 3.
What helps, when you losser against a much weaker oponent, is the analyse.
Often, even if the bot says that u played better and the oponent has a worse PR, you can find errors of your own who made u loose much equity. I try to focus on them rather than complaining about the rolls.
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