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Old 03-29-2011, 07:30 AM   #1
Adrian.Alex
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how big is the edge/variance vs very weak recreational players?

Hey guys

I didn't had time to read too much in this Section so I decided to ask you. How big is the edge and how big is the variance in this game considering you want to play with weak recreational players?

Thanks
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Old 03-29-2011, 09:11 AM   #2
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Re: how big is the edge/variance vs very weak recreational players?

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Originally Posted by Adrian.Alex View Post
Hey guys

I didn't had time to read too much in this Section so I decided to ask you. How big is the edge and how big is the variance in this game considering you want to play with weak recreational players?

Thanks
It depends a lot on how good you are, of course. But in general, compared to poker the edge is much larger and the variance is smaller.
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Old 03-29-2011, 09:42 AM   #3
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Re: how big is the edge/variance vs very weak recreational players?

really? the edge is bigger at Backgammon ?? I tought that the luck factor is much much much higher in this game. I forgot to mention that i'm reffering to live play.
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Old 03-29-2011, 09:45 AM   #4
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Re: how big is the edge/variance vs very weak recreational players?

I play 100nl and started from 0 in 2,3 years. how hard is to learn very good? is much more complex than poker?
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Old 03-29-2011, 11:02 AM   #5
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Re: how big is the edge/variance vs very weak recreational players?

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I play 100nl and started from 0 in 2,3 years. how hard is to learn very good? is much more complex than poker?
It's probably similar in terms of complexity than poker. Pre bots is was much harder, as was poker pre online. With 2-5 years of hard work you could get to a level where you could compete in most tournament fields, although you would still be a big dog versus truly world class players in cash games etc.

The variance in backgammon between is also pretty brutal and quite different compared to poker - many games of backgammon go right to the point of being mathematically impossible before they are over, often leaving you multiple opportunities per game to run into bad beats running into the 50,000 to 1 level if not higher - something a poker player never really has to encounter or deal with, but which when they happen can send even very good players tilting into oblivion.
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Old 03-29-2011, 01:11 PM   #6
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Re: how big is the edge/variance vs very weak recreational players?

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I play 100nl and started from 0 in 2,3 years. how hard is to learn very good? is much more complex than poker?
It's more complex than poker, and it takes longer to become truly good. The bots make the process much easier, but it's still hard.

Backgammon is best played live. Go to a tournament, enter the beginner's division, and see how you like it. You'll be able to play cash games on the side.
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Old 03-30-2011, 02:29 AM   #7
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Re: how big is the edge/variance vs very weak recreational players?

Saying backgammon is more complex than poker is nowhere near accurate. You may have meant backgammon is more complicated than one form of poker, NLHE, in which case the statement is ok.

Nobody can answer your question unless you define a lot more variables. Money play? Match play? Match length? Strength of players involved? And if you start comparing to poker you have to define that too. Money play? Tournament play? Heads up/short handed/full ring? What poker game? Etc...
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Old 04-01-2011, 12:27 PM   #8
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Re: how big is the edge/variance vs very weak recreational players?

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Originally Posted by bgenthusiast View Post
Saying backgammon is more complex than poker is nowhere near accurate. You may have meant backgammon is more complicated than one form of poker, NLHE, in which case the statement is ok.

Nobody can answer your question unless you define a lot more variables. Money play? Match play? Match length? Strength of players involved? And if you start comparing to poker you have to define that too. Money play? Tournament play? Heads up/short handed/full ring? What poker game? Etc...
I agree, but I think it's easier to reach a decent level in poker than in backgammon. Both games share that wonderful element of chance but in poker you have hidden variables and people's personalities involved. in NLHE it's a stripped down version of elements and the "people factor" becomes much more of a variable. In Backgammon nothing is hidden, all facts are on the table and it's how well you play and how well you roll.

As for action, it's hard to find the kind of donkeys in BG that are rampant in poker. Most guys playing BG for cash play a decent game. In poker some people play so bad they might as well hand you their money.
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Old 04-01-2011, 01:16 PM   #9
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Re: how big is the edge/variance vs very weak recreational players?

10x a lot guys
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Old 04-22-2011, 06:51 PM   #10
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Re: how big is the edge/variance vs very weak recreational players?

Long term (however you choose to define long term - stack sizes or number of matches in poker, matches to x or number of games or in backgammon) poker is lower variance heads up and a good player has a bigger edge over a weaker player because the "natural edge" of an unthinking bot-like player over a fish is about 70-30. It is greater in reality.

It's harder for a naturally talented player to be technically proficient in backgammon than in poker hence the bigger edge in poker. 3 or more handed it's different and the comparison is irrelevant.
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Old 04-26-2011, 11:32 PM   #11
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Talking Re: how big is the edge/variance vs very weak recreational players?

I just came across these estimates from the creator of eXtreme Gammon:

http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbb....pl?read=94826

They are based on 100 and 200 point elo differences.
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Old 04-27-2011, 11:49 AM   #12
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Re: how big is the edge/variance vs very weak recreational players?

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Originally Posted by Taper_Mike View Post
I just came across these estimates from the creator of eXtreme Gammon:

http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbb....pl?read=94826

They are based on 100 and 200 point elo differences.
These are simply based on the Elo Formula P=1/(1+10^(delo/2000*sqrt(N)))
where
* delo is the difference of elo
* N the match length
* P the probability of the underdog to win.

For series of match, use the single match win and a binomial distribution.
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Old 10-11-2018, 04:00 PM   #13
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Re: how big is the edge/variance vs very weak recreational players?

Recreational players are different, but between a recreational player who provides time, money and activity, working on his game to become better (those players who are currently mostly attracted by the industry) and a true recreational player whose motivation is limited to just playing poker and the exit of pleasure, there is a huge difference. Any player who spends his time studying poker strategies, reading poker books and articles, participating in poker forums can be called an aspirant. But this does not mean that he will definitely become a professional or even a winning player.
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