This happened to be in a match where I was leading 2a/11a, which is why the cube is still in the middle, but the answer is the same for money so that’s what I’ve shown here.

If I'm not mistaken you win pretty close to the obvious 25/36 of the time when you hit. If he fans you win with the cube and if he hits he wins with the cube, or at a minimum has a very efficient one when you come in and get into the outfield. The only exception to this is 55 so that will be worth 1/36 of 11/36. I can't imagine you win that often in a straight race where black is only down 7 and on roll.

I'm hitting here also, applying the same reasoning as described by RUT

Sorry, I never got around to posting the answer to this one. You're correct that the hit wins more often (by a significant amount -- about 68 vs. 73%). And that's what I played over the board. But I was surprised to see that we're supposed to make the running play anyway! The evaluation below is for 2a/11a (hitting is -0.071), and the hitting play is actually a blunder for money (-0.101) if the cube were in the middle, but for money the cube really should have been turned so it's not really fair.

My best explanation is that when we hit and he fans we've lost our market by a ton, while (as a small race leader) if we make the racing play we're more likely to get in an efficient cube. I would have thought with the cube in the middle the market loss possibilities for both players about cancel out (since he's also lost his market by a lot if we hit and he hits back). But maybe as the favorite in the game we're more likely than the opponent to be able to efficiently use a centered cube.