XGID=-a--CCB-B---cB-a-bbd-b-BA-:0:0:-1:00:18:0:3:0:10


Why is this a no double for white and a massive take for black??

The doubling decision looks close.

White has only one checker back, and his structure looks promising, but he is a bit short on immediate threats. Doublets play well for him, as does 51. Those are his only clear point-makers, however, so the chances are he will not be filling in the critical 5pt next turn. If White uses a checker from either the 7pt or 8pt to make his 5pt, Black will get one or two direct shots at the checker White leaves behind.

On the other side of the board, White's 6s play well, launching a runner into the outfield. Black will usually get a shot at it before it can completely escape.

Meanwhile, Black has an anchor and small boardage. If White cannot get his runner going, Black will try to attack it. If successful, Black could easily make another inside point or else fill in his bar point.

White will probably win more gammons than Black, but Black is getting his fair share as well. The gammon differential is probably in the single digits.

All in all, White is just a little bit short of a double. Black’s take is easy.

Mike

Black's take should be pretty clear. At worst, he's going to have some sort of deuce point game. To get to there, White has to improve measurably -- escape his back checker while Black does nothing good with his back checkers.

While White has a clear advantage, there's not much that can happen on the next sequence that will give Black a big pass. I mean aside from the few rolls that cleanly make the 5 point. Like picture White rolling a 6-5, running, and Black rolling a number that doesn't do much like 3-2. That's a tremendous sequence for White, but it still doesn't look like Black is all that far from a take. He's still going to win 20%+ though the gammons will probably push it to a pass.

So basically it's OK for White to wait for a good sequence, and not regret holding off on the cube too much if he gets a great one. On the other hand, if things go badly, he'll be very glad the cube's still in the center.