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Explain The Error - Choice of Hits

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12-28-2021 , 10:22 AM

merlot128

enthusiast

Join Date: Oct 2018 Posts: 82

Can anyone explain why XG2 thinks this is a fairly big error and almost a blunder? My thinking was that hitting on the 18 point leaves a better anchor on the 22 point should he hit back which is likely. Should he fail to hit back it is also easier to get my remaining back checker clear with the next roll. I am obviously missing something here?

https://imgur.com/a/ND7Ooao

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12-28-2021 , 02:18 PM

_Z_

adept

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 720

Your play is more likely to get hit and more likely to get double hit, so it's a little too risky given that you are outboarded.

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12-28-2021 , 05:34 PM

merlot128

enthusiast

Join Date: Oct 2018 Posts: 82

Sorry for being stupid, but I cannot see how I am more likely to get hit or double hit? My play needs a 4/6 for the double hit and XG needs a 4/5 so there is no difference and there are the other benefits I mentioned with my move?

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12-28-2021 , 09:05 PM

_Z_

adept

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 720

After your play, Black is happy to hit inside his board with 3s and 5s. After the right play, the inside hitting numbers -- 4s and 5s are duplicated with the outside hitting numbers, so that reduces the shots. And Black is less happy to hit off his 2 point than the 3 point anyways.

Just looking at double hit numbers, after your play, great double hits for Black: 4-1, 4-6, 4-5, 4-3, 1-1 after the right play: just 4-5 and 4-4.

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12-29-2021 , 07:47 AM

merlot128

enthusiast

Join Date: Oct 2018 Posts: 82

I see that now, many thanks.

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12-29-2021 , 09:41 AM

Jez

enthusiast

Join Date: Jan 2019 Posts: 63

Interesting. Just to clarify - it looks like this all resolves around the blot on the 17 point? Hit that and it means it's not available to hit you back. But hit the one on the 18 point and it leaves the one on the 17 point to attack inside black's home board?

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12-29-2021 , 02:16 PM

_Z_

adept

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 720

Not sure I understand exactly what you're asking but the way I think about is that when you hit the blot on the 18, the White checkers are a lot more exposed -- the checker on the 18 can be hit with 6s and 1s and the checker on the 22 can be hit with 3s and 5s and then there's 4s on the other side of the board. You make the other play, it's just 4s and 5s that hit back.

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